Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE; SOME AREAS COULD SEE TWO MONTHS WORTH OF RAIN THIS WEEK

ncwxauthority

May 18, 2020

3 min read

Well, if you missed the rain, don't worry it is coming back in full force this week. Arthur will be nothing compared to the amount of rain expected this week across the state. Flash Flooding possible for everyone, but looking more likely in the Mountains and Foothills. Mudslides possible as well in the mountains and River Flooding too. A major pattern change is on the way starting tonight and lasting through at least Friday; in fact, we may not see a completely dry day until next Saturday. Models continue to illustrate a very wet period over the next few days, widespread rainfall and Flash Flooding expected. WHAT: A stalled upper level low over North Carolina will bring days of cloudiness and rain. The combination of Tropical moisture and a stalled cold front will create for major rainfall, especially from Greensboro and points west. Precipitable Water near 2" will bring a high chance for slow-moving storms. High-Pressure north will create a blocking situation; this will result of days of clouds and on-off thunderstorms and rain. Weak high pressure nosing down east of the Appalachians will provide weak cold air damming settling somewhere between I-85 and I-20 Wednesday before gradually eroding late Thursday. Southeasterly riding up and over the cool dome near the surface will provide areas of enhanced rainfall rates near the cold air damming boundary as well as near the escarpment, including the North Carolina foothills and southwest mountains due to decent upslope enhancement. Model guidance suggests there will be enough breaks in the clouds south and east of the cold air damming boundary at times to allow for at least some destabilization, raising the risk for thunderstorms for these areas in the mountains and foothills. Over Central and Eastern NC training showers and thunderstorms will be likely at any point over the next few days.

RAINFALL/FLOODING: Rainfall amounts from this are expected to be fairly impressive, on the order of 2-3 inches for areas East of Raleigh to the coast. 3-6 inches of rain west of Raleigh, and 6-8" of rain where the training of thunderstorms occur near the wedge boundary or near the escarpment in the Foothills and Mountains (Hickory west) . The risk of flooding is particularly concerning late Tuesday into Thursday as rounds of heavier rainfall leading up to this time will prime the area for the potential for flash flooding and debris flows (mountains) as well as flooding and even potentially some flooding for prone rivers, despite recent dry conditions. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center day two forecast now has most of the western part of the state (see below) in a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday night.

This means there's a 20-50% chance of Flash FLooding within a 25 mile point in the red and a 10-20% chance in the yellow. A level 3/5 risk is rare and more common during major flooding events.

Wednesday Flooding Outlook:

WILL IT RAIN EVERYDAY ALL DAY LONG: The short answer is no, the rain will be on and off throughout the state Tonight through Friday. The most substantial periods of rain will be tonight-Tuesday and Wednesday night. Please be prepared for Flash Flooding, especially in areas that normally flood first; I expect a Flood Watch to be posted for a portion of the state later this afternoon and evening. While the week will not be a complete washout, it will be very wet with on and off showers and thunderstorms likely everywhere. Unfortunately, we can not pinpoint exactly where and when the rain will fall over the week, so I would have alternative plans in place. Please stay tuned for updates over the next few days. The bottom line is be ready for a very wet period through at least Friday; there will be breaks and sunshine. However, Flash Flooding is a real concern as we head toward Tuesday into Wednesday.

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