Continuing to monitor the tropics

🌀 TROPICAL UPDATE: I am still monitoring an area of disturbed weather that could lead to tropical development; there are many, many questions and not many answers at this point. Here are my latest thoughts. As of this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center is still monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the Central Tropical Atlantic. Environmental Conditions are not favorable for development until the Bahamas, so if you have plans elsewhere in the Caribbean, there is no reason to worry about it. The National Hurricane says interests in the Bahamas and the southeastern US should monitor the progress of this system. I am watching it closely, and to be transparent, we still don’t know where it might go. There has been a trend today that’ll it likely be somewhere off the SE United States late weekend into next week. It now has a 60% chance of development; looking over the latest models, I think the NHC will increase the odds more.

-Key Messages:

-The system is expected to slowly move west towards the Bahamas over the next few days, where models start to develop it. It has not been officially designated an Invest yet, so we don’t have the special hurricane models yet. We don’t have a closed center, so model data is very unreliable right now.

-We will have a trough approaching early next week; if it is off our coast, it could be picked up by the trough and miss NC. It is too soon to write off the system; we have to closely monitor it. Most models that do develop keep it mostly a Tropical Storm to maybe a weak Category 1 Hurricane. However, with warm ocean temps and the Gulf Stream, I still don’t want to rule out a Hurricane. We really want have a good idea on the intently until the system starts to develop.  

‼️Image 2: Possible Tracks, please know there is much uncertainly with this system and I am trying to convey the message as transparent as possible with the limited forecast data we have. This system has not developed, there is no closed center we’re basing solely on computer/ satellite data. The Hurricane Hunters will start investigating the system soon this should greatly start improving forecast data.

👀 Track 1: System remains weak the trade winds push it into Florida as a weak open wave maybe weak tropical storm/depression and into the gulf. No impacts to the Carolinas.

👀 Track 2: The system is stronger, gets controlled by the ridge of high pressure, and heads north northeast towards the Carolinas. This would bring the greatest impacts to North and South Carolina. It could be a tropical storm or hurricane; we just don’t know at this point. Unfortunately, no human or model can accurately predict what will happen strength-wise this far out. Any impacts would not be until Sunday-Tuesday.

👀 Track 3: The system forms quick and gets strong and heads out to sea a Fish 🐠 Storm little to no impacts to the SE other than increased Surf/Rip Currents.

💁 Image 3: I thought I would give you a quick refresher on Ensembles. Ensemble forecasting is a method used in Numerical Weather Prediction; instead of one run of the atmospheric conditions, ensembles are run with slightly different starting conditions. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models. These variations represent the inevitable uncertainty in the initial conditions and approximations in the models. Ensemble forecasting is very helpful, and you can take the averages and see the outliers to understand, how you should best create a forecast. Looking at the European Ensembles the current forecast gives a 40-50% of a Tropical Storm around our coast next week; we will continue to monitor the ensembles.

😎We have a ton of time to watch how this system evolves; there is no reason to panic or cancel plans at this time. It is definitely something to keep an eye on. Forecast data will continue to get better as we get later into this week. You're going to continue to see hype posts and scary news articles. Rest assured, you don't need to panic. It would be a good time to review your hurricane plans, especially along the coast, as we're heading into the heart of Hurricane season. Models are all over the place, and no one can tell you where or what will happen exactly to this system other than looking at possible paths based on the environmental setups. The Bottom Line is to keep an eye on it, but we're in a hurry-up wait period. There's no reason to cancel plans or start preparing. Just stay aware. I'll continue to provide as many updates as possible to help you and your family as I have for eight years through Hurricane season.  

-Ethan