The threat of Severe Weather is increasing for the predawn hours of Monday into Monday afternoon. The timing of the severe Weather particularly concerns me early morning; however, models are showing a slower system which could put a lot of the system from Charlotte east during the daytime hours (timing below) . The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for Severe Weather for the entire state with a level 3/5 (Enhanced Risk from Fayetteville and Goldsboro east and southwestern NC, I expect that could be expanded or upgraded as early as tomorrow. No, the world is not going to end. Not everyone sees Severe Weather like snow or Hurricanes, but it is the time to stay aware and have many ways for alerts. This could be a Potentially dangerous situation for folks that don't have ways to receive warnings.
KEY POINTS: 1) Severe Weather is possible Monday (predawn hours) morning to early afternoon across NC, many to numerous storms will be Severe. Damaging Straight-Line Winds are most concerning due to the fact that the low-level jet is so strong, Damage from severe thunderstorm winds account for half of all severe reports in the lower 48 states and is more common than damage from tornadoes. Wind speeds can reach up to 75 mph and can produce a damage path extending for hundreds of miles. 2) There remains a risk for Tornadoes especially in areas that see more instability, read below for more information regarding Tornadoes 3) Flash Flooding is certainly possible where thunderstorms are training; in fact many inches of rain could fall from Sunday afternoon through early Monday before it is all set and done 4) People must have a way of hearing warnings, and that way should never, ever be a siren. Their purpose is only to reach a limited number of people outdoors. Every North Carolina home and business must have a NOAA Weather radio, properly programmed, and with a fresh battery backup. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone (check notification settings)... even with no good weather app installed you will receive a tornado warning with a loud audible alert. 5) Sunday during the day will be dry in the morning; then we will have widespread rain moving in from west to east during the afternoon. This will not be severe could be heavy.
WHAT: A robust springtime storm system will likely produce Severe Weather across the southeast Sunday into Monday, this threat will be with us here in NC Sunday during the overnight hours into Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a level 4/5 risk for severe Weather for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The threat expands north and east across Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Risk upon us will be way different then what we have seen the past few days. One key ingredient for severe Weather is CAPE (convective available potential energy); this critical for the development of severe Weather. Models are showing 1000-1500, which is enough for severe storms to fire the more sun we see, the more energy, no matter if we see the sun or not severe Weather is still a concern, just sun exacerbates the situation. The question for this is do we see the event during the predawn hours or does the sun come up for some especially to the east. However, another important "ingredient" is shear; the shear levels are going to be rather high for the Carolina's. Thus Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are certainly likely on the map below. A QLCS, which is a fancy name for a squiggly line of storms, will have the greatest threat for damaging winds and embedded Tornadoes. The QLCS will then pose a risk of widespread 40-55 mph winds, locally up to 65-75 mph, and a few mesovortices/tornadoes (embedded tornadoes). There still remains some significant uncertainty regarding CAPE (convective available potential energy); this important for the development of severe Weather. However, another important "ingredient" is shear; the shear levels are going to be approaching extremely high levels for the Carolina's. Thus Damaging winds and tornadoes are certainly possible; however, there remains many questions regarding how much that detail will be ironed out over the next day or so. A trend that is concerning which would increase the severe threat is the fact that the system has been slowing up; this would increase our severe weather threat. We will watch this closely over the next 24 hours.
THREATS: Based on the current model analysis, all types of severe Weather is expected. Damaging winds look to be the greatest threat, however, the threat for tornadoes also is possible. Models are showing discrete supercells mix in with the mainline over / Central/Eastern NC; this trend will be monitored for Tornadoes. As always, with all storms, large hail is possible too.
TORNADOES Models continue to spit out some alarming low and mid-level shear values, which, if realized, would easily support the formation of a few tornadoes across Central and Eastern NC. Still some uncertainty on favored locations at this point, likely dependent in large part to surface heating ahead of the line and the eventual strength and placement of the QLCS does it break up into individual cells or stay all one line.
FLASH FLOODING: Flash Flooding will certainly be a concern again with this system, especially in and around urban centers across the mountains Areas that see training storms will be of primary concern. Eventually, the 1 - 1.5 inch areal average equals 2-3” of rain with this system will be a concern across the Mountains, where the Weather Prediction Center has placed a moderate risk for flooding.
HYPE CONTROL: Instead of being scared, be prepared! If you are prepared and always have a plan ready to be activated. You will be just fine, and don’t trust random face bag pages hyping EF5 tornadoes coming. Y’all be smart, be prepared and we will all be okay. Here’s a checklist - If you have a smartphone, be sure that WEA ( Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone. There’s no app for this, go to your settings and notifications scroll down to the bottom for iPhones: These alert you to Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings that’s it and they're very loud. -Make sure you have a good backup app, I suggest the Red-cross App or the WRAL Weather App. -Find your safe place, in homes, small closets, small room, the lowest floor, away from windows and outside walls. Try to be in the center of the house. Have helmets, pillows, and hard shoes In case there’s damage. -Apartments, if you are on a higher floor, be sure you work it out with the residents on the lowest levels of the apartment complex to come to their place during Tornado Warnings. -If you live in a trailer/ mobile home/ manufactured homes. LEAVE, if a warning is issued, these are not safe. - Please learn how to find yourself on a map, County outlines. - Make sure you only share and follow trusted sites on social media, if it sounds like it probably is. Especially going around saying catastrophic events coming. Don’t follow facebag pages that are all panic and hype, that just share overly dramatic stuff with no details. These are things you should have in the back of your head during every severe weather event.
WILL THIS BE LIKE THIS EVENT? No, all events are different and have different characteristics.
WHAT CAN WE DO NOW? Right now, you can make sure you have a way to receive warnings that will wake you up. Please make sure you know how to find your county on a map; I'll post the NC county map above.
Another full update in the morning, Stay tuned for a time regarding a Facebook Live; sometime on Sunday.