Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

ARCTIC BLAST TO BRING THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON

ncwxauthority

Nov 6, 2019

2 min read

Our pattern is quickly changing an Arctic blast will bring the coldest air of the season with long-time records in jeopardy. A strong cold front will bring the first real cold air of the season to NC, highs on Friday will struggle to get out of the 40s for many. Winter is coming quickly; everything you need to know below.

Thursday Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy to overcast especially west of Raleigh, we could see a few showers move into the mountains ahead of our next cold front. Highs will be a little warmer Thursday mid-upper 60s and low 70s!

BIG TIME CHANGE: The much talked about Arctic blast will bring the coldest air of the season in two waves. The first real cold front of the season arrives Thursday night into Friday; a few showers are likely Thursday night into early Friday. The real cold comes midday Friday. We will clear out Friday and should become mostly sunny from west to east; highs will struggle to get out of the 40s and 50s. The real deal arrives Friday night into Saturday, and clearing skies will allow temperatures to crash, widespread freeze for the entire state to just inland from the coastal areas. Lows will be in the lower 20s in the mountains to 20s and low 30s for Central and Eastern NC. The growing season will end.

The weekend and Monday will be the in-between period, rather cold highs in the 50s and lows 60s with lows in the 30s and 20s Saturday night/ Sunday night 30s and 40s. It will be sunny for everyone though!

THE SECOND COLD FRONT: This cold front will likely be the strongest and coldest cold front since late February. Record cold is possible for some starting Tuesday lasting through the end of next week. All signs point toward even colder air next week Tuesday-Friday (November 15th) Both the European and GFS (two major models) have a polar blast effecting of the Eastern US.

Here's a look at the European Forecasted lows (One Model)

Tuesday night into Wednesday

Wednesday night into Thursday morning

You should prepare your homes and properties for widespread freezes next week.

Winter Weather follow up:

Well, it's that time again where we see all the talk of the "S" word. Here's my honest truth, I don't need to hype the situation or get "clicks." In the winter, to me anything beyond 3-4 days is no man's land. Right now, a few models have been throwing the idea around of maybe some wintery precipitation next week. No one knows, even if they say Alert snow is coming. I don't believe in covering or posting about snow more than 3 days out, all of the postings before that is hype. This page is for the real honest truth not some hyped dramatic information on something that might happen from a model 5+ days away. I'll be with you all winter long, but not hyping anything. Real weather here the real truth.