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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Active Thursday ahead with a low-end Severe Weather Threat

Severe Weather Update: We have a sneaky severe threat, a short wave that will work through the state on Thursday, bringing waves of showers and thunderstorms; in the warm sector across parts of Central/Eastern NC, there appears to be some support for the potential of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Eastern NC, mainly Raleigh south and east, into a level 1/5 risk, due to the potential. I'll stress the uncertainty is high, timing out the waves of storms and which ones could go severe.




WHAT: We will have rich low-level moisture that will support the potential of strong to severe storms Thursday, mainly in the afternoon/evening. Low and mid-level wind flows could support the potential for some damaging winds and even a brief tornado or two in the strongest convection. There remains uncertainty, and at this time, I don't see anything in the models to support anything major, but the threat is greater than 0.

THREATS : Damaging winds and even a brief tornado or two are the main threat as of now, widespread severe weather is not expected. I'll continue to monitor the progress and models overnight as this situation is fluid.

: The timing will be mainly after lunch Thursday through the evening; we will have to watch those storms.


Bottom Line: There is a low-end risk of Severe Weather Thursday, and folks in Eastern/Central NC should stay weather aware. However, nothing to panic about. If you have a plan in place, you're good to go! I'll be monitoring.

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