Active Thursday ahead with a low-end Severe Weather Threat
Severe Weather Update: We have a sneaky severe threat, a short wave that will work through the state on Thursday, bringing waves of showers and thunderstorms; in the warm sector across parts of Central/Eastern NC, there appears to be some support for the potential of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Eastern NC, mainly Raleigh south and east, into a level 1/5 risk, due to the potential. I'll stress the uncertainty is high, timing out the waves of storms and which ones could go severe.
WHAT: We will have rich low-level moisture that will support the potential of strong to severe storms Thursday, mainly in the afternoon/evening. Low and mid-level wind flows could support the potential for some damaging winds and even a brief tornado or two in the strongest convection. There remains uncertainty, and at this time, I don't see anything in the models to support anything major, but the threat is greater than 0.
THREATS : Damaging winds and even a brief tornado or two are the main threat as of now, widespread severe weather is not expected. I'll continue to monitor the progress and models overnight as this situation is fluid.
: The timing will be mainly after lunch Thursday through the evening; we will have to watch those storms.
Bottom Line: There is a low-end risk of Severe Weather Thursday, and folks in Eastern/Central NC should stay weather aware. However, nothing to panic about. If you have a plan in place, you're good to go! I'll be monitoring.