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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Active Sunday, showers, and thunderstorms likely before clearing out a mild day.

Temperatures soar ahead of a cold front for a good portion of the state, and the 70s return for Eastern and Central areas. Happy Sunday, North Carolina! A mid-level short wave and an occluded front will bring widespread showers and even some embedded thunderstorms to most of the state through early to mid-afternoon; coverage will be 80-90% of the state. I expect the vast majority to get wet. The best chance to see rain will be from early this morning until early afternoon; a dry slot will work in from the southwest and push eat through the afternoon, shutting of the rain from west to east. We should all be dry by mid to late afternoon, most areas west earlier. Highs will soar into the mid-upper 60s and low-mid 70s for all areas. An isolated strong to severe storm will be possible. It will also be a very windy day regardless, so tie down the light objects. Wind gusts up to 45MPH are possible in spots even higher across the mountains.



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