Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

A few strong to severe storms are possible across Central/NE Eastern today (Monday, May 5th)

Ethan Clark
May 5, 2025
1 min read

Severe Weather Update: A shortwave trough and a stalled cold front will pivot through parts of Central and Eastern NC today. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 1/5 for most of Central and Eastern NC, and a level 2/5 risk for a portion of Eastern and Northeast North Carolina. Due to the risk of a couple of strong to potentially severe storms this afternoon and evening.

WHAT: The front in the area across parts of Eastern NC will spark a couple of strong to potentially severe storms from about Raleigh and points east. Cape or Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm, which be around 1,000-1,500 j/kg, and will result in some storms to develop.

⚠️: A couple of strong to severe storms will develop this afternoon and evening. The main risk is some gusty to damaging winds and hail with these storms, along with some pockets of heavy rainfall as they move east and northeast. The storms will be isolated to scattered, so it's just a hit-or-miss setup.

Radar, you can see the radar images below are very scattered and mostly around central/NE NC through the evening hours.

👀 The Bottom Line: A few strong to potentially severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Central/Eastern NE NC. Widespread severe weather is not expected; there is no reason to panic, but stay aware of a few storms this afternoon and evening.