Active Weather is ahead; rounds of storms are likely, with some Flash Flooding possible.

Ethan Clark

July 21, 2026 at 8:08:00 PM

Alright guys, let's talk, since it appears everyone in their brother and 3rd cousin once removed has plans this week and into the weekend! Unfortunately, if you have outdoor plans, you'll be at the mercy of Mother Nature for the next few days. An approaching front will bring a very active period of weather through Saturday at least across North Carolina, and if you haven’t had rain yet by Saturday, I am pretty confident you'll have rainfall!

WHAT: A front will move into the state and stall Wednesday night into Thursday; where the stalling occurs will greatly determine who sees potentially significant rainfall through Saturday, which would also have the potential to have Flash Flooding, which is currently favoring somewhere across Central/Eastern NC. Even with drought condtions excessive rainfall just runs off and results in Flash Flooding. Yes, we can flood in droughts.

Wednesday PM/Evening (Image 2): Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, with a limited severe weather risk, with damaging winds as the main threat along the front, which appears to be stalled over parts of Central/Eastern. A level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather has been placed by the Storm Prediction Center; there could be a brief/limited Tornado risk Wednesday evening into the overnight hours (watching)

Thursday: Waves of on-and-off showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the state on and off, favoring Central and Eastern NC. Some could be heavy at times, resulting in potential flash flooding for some. Low severe risk at this point and much cooler temps in the 70s/80s for most areas due to considerable clouds.

Friday: The highest storm chances/rain will be in Central and Southern/Southeastern/Eastern sections of the state. Not a washout, but storms definitely around.

Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend; not a washout by any means, but better chances for more storms and rain the further south and east you are.

The Bottom Line: We need the rain, but all at once could result in some Flash Flooding. I'll be watching over the coming days and pinpoint where exactly as we get a clearer picture. Stay tuned for updates; here are just some thoughts!

-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Very cold weather coming and a potential Winter Storm. Everything you need to know! ❄️

Ethan Clark
Jan 19, 2025
3 min read

Winter Storm Potential Update: Good morning all, I've been looking through all the data the last 24 hours and thinking through this abnormal winter weather setup. I feel a little more confident about the forecast, but there remain a lot of uncertainties. I've created a map of where the best chance of seeing snow/sleet is, and I will explain my thinking below. Due to the high amount of uncertainty, I am holding off on an official snowfall amount map, but I will likely post one this evening, my first call map.

WHAT: Here's my brain dump thinking this morning, very cold air will move into the state tonight. Regardless of Winter Weather, confidence is high that we will see an extended period of very cold temperatures across the state this week. Take time to make sure you're ready for very cold, potentially dangerous cold air statewide. Winter Weather? This is the million-dollar $ question that everyone wants to know, unfortunately as with winter weather events in North Carolina, the forecast is not easy and all over the place.

- We will have a low-pressure system moving across the SE United States Monday into Tuesday, bringing rare snow/sleet to parts of the SE United States. Then on Tuesday, it'll move off our coast, which will be key to our forecast. How far the system moves just off the coast will make all the difference in who sees snow and who sees nothing. Unfortunately, models can't pinpoint this well. Even just 72 hours from the event. Timing of any snow will be Tuesday PM-Wednesday morning.

- I have been very cautious about this forecast; this is an abnormal forecast; areas that have not seen snow in years to over a decade could see some snow this week.

Where snow/sleet could fall map Image 1:

Light Blue (Lower Chance of Accumulating Snow): This area across Central NC is the wildcard, as you say it. How far will snow spread in the Northwest on Tuesday evening into Wednesday? There will be a tight gradient of some snow to literally no snow across this light blue area. 50-mile shifts in the low-pressure system will make all the difference. There could be some light snow accumulations in this area to none the further west you are.

Dark Blue Area: (Highest Chance of some accumulating snow) I think this area along and East of 95 to just west of the immediate coastline will be the sweet spot, or so you say of some accumulating snow. This area has the best chance of snow all snow accumulations; how much snow really does fall is up for debate. I do think Tuesday afternoon to Thursday will have impacts on travel across this area. It has been rather cold, and any snow that does fall will stick to all untreated objects/roads.

Light Pink: (Mix of Snow/Sleet Area) As it stands now, some light snow/sleet accumulations will be possible along the coast/beaches. There will likely be travel impacts from accumulating snow and sleet.

-Key Takeaways The Bottom Line: There is no reason for mass panic across Eastern/Coastal NC, I know you've not seen snow in a very long time, but I am rooting for some snow for y'all. No, you're not going to be snowed for 2 weeks. Don't go raid the grocery stores; models continue to change and will shift around the next 36 hours. If you've been following me for several days, this setup looks more like scenario B. Forecasting winter weather in North Carolina is far from easy; many factors must come together. Forecasts always have high bust potential here in NC, I’ve spent hours pouring through data, looking at the atmosphere, and using some experience from past storms to make this forecast. I'll be watching the trends today and plan to issue my first call snow map this evening or in the morning depending on forecast confidence. Stay tuned, and don't panic. I'll be here to walk you through the forecast in layman's terms. Stay Warm.