North Carolina will see some indirect impacts from Hurricane Isaias

Ethan Clark

October 8, 2026 at 11:50:44 AM

🌀 Hurricane Isaias Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I know you've been waiting for this; here's my forecast update on Isaias's indirect impacts on North Carolina this weekend. The positives: This is NOT a repeat of Helene by any means at all, so please don't think that! The weekend isn't a total washout; there will be dry time, and the storm is moving fast enough to clear out pretty quickly. The world is not ending here in NC, and we will be just fine. Don't stress. Isaias became a Hurricane overnight and will keep strengthening until landfall, and it will make landfall along the Florida/Alabama-Mississippi coast on Friday evening; significant impacts are likely in these areas. This update will cover impacts in NC, though. Even though Isaias's center will go into Tennessee and not impact NC directly, we will get indirect impacts from the outer bands and the surrounding front.

📌Here's how I think it'll play out:

RAIN: Scattered to isolated showers will be around across the state Saturday morning, and but there will be breaks and dry time for sure Saturday morning into the afternoon; coverage looks pretty hit or miss. Saturday afternoon and evening rain chances ramp up, especially west and along the coast, it seems; some rain could be heavy at times by the time the evening and overnight rolls along. Sunday morning rain will be around hit or miss throughout the state, and start clearing out Sunday PM/evening. The race in Charlotte is trending drier btw.

Amounts Image 2: Rainfall through Sunday PM, we will see generally 1-2 inches along the high mountains, and in Central and Northern NC. At this point, we're not expecting much flooding; we would only see some if a storm trains over the same area. Most of these areas desperately need the rain. 2-4 inches in the orange-area parts of the mountians/foothills and then coastal areas. Along the coast, the front could enhance rain at times, so we could see some bursts of heavy rainfall. Across the Foothills and Blue Ridge Escarpment, we could see some localized flooding in flood-prone areas if heavier rain sets up, so we will watch it. The rainfall forecast is still fluid, and with any tropical system can change, so stay tuned and don't take it literally this is using my best knowledge of the setup and models to make this.

Wind: Winds will really not be a concern but some gusty winds of 20-35MPH are possible with up to 45MPH in the mountians, maybe a couple of isolated outages in the mountians but I am really not concerned about this.

Tornado Threat: Given that NC is on the right side of the storm, and high wind shear is around, especially late Saturday into Sunday, we could see a low-end tornado threat develop in parts of Eastern/Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday, but the threat is fluid and not a certainty right now. So, stay tuned; overall, it looks pretty low. I'm watching, of course.

😎The Bottom Line: The world is not ending; we will be just fine. Minimal overall impact: This system is moving fast and isn't a repeat of Helene; the weekend won't be a washout and will feature plenty of dry time, including a trending-dry race in Charlotte. Rainfall: Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain across central and northern areas, and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains, foothills, and coast, bringing mostly beneficial moisture but a localized risk of flooding in vulnerable spots. Minor Wind & Low Tornado Risk: Sustained winds and gusts (20–35 MPH, up to 45 MPH in the mountains) are mostly a minor nuisance, though a low-end, highly fluid tornado threat will be monitored across Eastern and Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned on that. This is the forecast as I see it now, but remember it is a science and things can and will change, so I'll do my best to keep you posted!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Update: Watching the tropics, nothing to panic about.

Ethan Clark

Aug 5, 2025

2 min read

🌀 TROPICAL UPDATE: Good evening, everyone. Here's my newest Tropical Update. I know there are many questions regarding the tropics, and people are worried about the remainder of Hurricane Season. I understand there is a lot of PTSD from last season. I understand the concern, but please take a deep breath and calm down. As of Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring two areas for possible development, as well as Tropical Storm Dexter (Dexter is out in the open Atlantic and not a concern). Let me walk you through my current thinking for both systems.

🟠Area #1: This is a weak surface trough located off the Southeast United States, it is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and an area of low pressure could develop over the next 1-2 days off the Carolinas. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40% of becoming a Depression or Tropical Storm, at this point, I am not very concerned about it. Model data isn't particularly interested in the system; sometimes models perform poorly in this setup, so I'm hesitant to completely dismiss it. At this point, it could bring some increased moisture, increased Surf/Rip Currents late week to the coast as the system moves generally NE right along or just off the coast. Nothing to change or cancel plans for this weekend at this point, just some passing showers and storms possible along the coast. I will monitor it over the next 24-36 hours, just in case though.

🟠Area #2 This is a tropical wave located in the far Eastern Tropical Atlantic that has just come off Africa, along the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic. As expected, models are all over the place over the next 7-12 days as some development is possible, but how strong where it goes is really anyone's guess. On image 2, I've created a graphic showing how long it takes systems in the Atlantic to travel on average. So again, there's plenty of time to monitor and see if this will ever pose a threat to the mainland. Note the graphic is just an example on image 2 and not a REAL FORECAST.

😎: The Bottom Line: Welcome to August in North Carolina we will be going through peak Hurricane season over the next 60 days, so as always, we will watch each area of concern like a hawk, but there is nothing to really worry about right now. Please be cautious of people sharing scary forecasts about storms that are more than 10 days away. As always, I will post updates as I think are necessary.

-Ethan

Update as of 8PM August 5th. 2025*