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SUNDAY: Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening

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CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON


Here's my midday update on the storm risk, including the potential for a few strong-to-severe storms this afternoon and evening. It'll be hot and humid today before any storms start to develop, so take it easy. We will have a front moving through the state tonight, which will, dare I say, usher in some slightly cooler air for the beginning of the week.


Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be have the potential to develop across the state, mainly in clusters/hit or a hit-or-miss setup. They'll be scattered, so not everyone will see them by any means, but there will be some storms around. However, thanks to the combination of heat and humidity (HIGH CAPE VALUES) and some Wind Shear, a couple of strong to severe storms are possible today; the main threat is going to be damaging winds from downbursts. Downbursts (a powerful, localized column of sinking air (a downdraft) within a thunderstorm that plummets to the ground and spreads out in all directions. It can create destructive, straight-line winds)


Severe weather does not impact everyone, and storm coverage today will be very hit-or-miss, but we should keep an eye on it, especially if you have outdoor late-afternoon/evening plans. Severe weather can vary significantly over short distances. To stay safe, ensure you have multiple methods for receiving emergency alerts and a pre-planned, secure location where you can take cover when conditions deteriorate.


I posted some future radar images, but made them small because the future radar models don't do great on days like this, which gives you an idea of the scattered nature. I'll keep you updated!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Update May 31st, 8 PM Update

The first day of Hurricane season begins tomorrow, and it is roaring in. On Tuesday evening, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring an area of distributed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula partially related to the remains of Hurricane Agatha from the Pacific Ocean. This system is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days; the National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression over the next 5 days. The system will move north and east towards Florida; high model disagreement remains, but the overall steering pattern takes it toward Florida. Regardless of development, very high rainfall and gusty winds are in store for parts of Florida later this week. After Florida, it could end up in the Atlantic Ocean off the Southeastern US. It is too soon to know where it will go from there, but early indications are it would stay off the NC could but could bring some increased Rip Currents and High surf if that happens. I'll monitor; this is what I've done for the past 6 years and will continue as always. You can trust me to keep you posted on the tropics as I've always done.


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