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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wednesday across North Carolina.

Severe Weather Update: Well, in true March fashion, we have a risk of strong to severe storms on Wednesday across parts of North Carolina! Welcome to March. If you're new to North Carolina, we can have severe weather at any point of the year, but the spring is when we have most of our severe weather. I know there has been lots of crazy over the past few months across North Carolina, but rest assured, I'll be here to walk you through everything no matter what, without the hype in layman's terms. So, let's talk about Wednesday. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center issued a level 1 and level 2/5 risk of severe weather for most of North Carolina on Wednesday.


📌WHAT: A strong springtime cold front will roll across the Eastern US, likely bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms across North Carolina; some could be strong to severe. This is a classic high wind shear (Wind shear is a change in wind speed and/or direction over a short distance) Low Cape event, so we will have one main ingredient, and another one will be lacking. I do think the upper forcing will still be strong enough to support some severe weather.


Threats ⚠️: A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible across the state. The greatest threat for severe weather will be from Charlotte and Greensboro east, where a level 2/5 (Slight Risk) is in effect. We will have extensive wind shear aloft 40-55kt; this will support gusty winds throughout the day, even outside of thunderstorms statewide. The mountains could see wind gusts of 40-55MPH in spots Tuesday night into Wednesday outside of showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere across the state, it'll be breezy with high wind gusts in storms. There is an extensive amount of wind shear available. Some soundings suggest winds could change directions with height, supporting an isolated tornado risk mainly across Central and Eastern NC embedded within the line of showers and thunderstorms. I don't think the tornado threat is super high, but an isolated tornado is still possible. We will monitor that. Showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain, but movement is pretty quick so not a big flooding concern, but some runoff is possible. We need the rain, though.


TIMING⏰: Showers and storms will move from West to East across the state. It looks like early morning across Western North Carolina, late morning into midday across Central NC, and early/mid afternoon across Eastern North Carolina. I'll fine-tune the timing and post a map tomorrow.


Image 2 and 3: I've posted the remainders of severe weather forecasting and Tornado sheltering tips. This is a good reminder.



The Bottom Line: Severe Weather is nothing new in North Carolina; we always see it. There is no reason to panic; just be weather-aware on Wednesday and have ways to get warnings in case you need them. As always, I'll monitor the forecast over the next 48 hours and provide updates as needed. There is no reason to freak out; we will be just fine.


-Ethan

 
 
 

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