Tropical Update: Tracking the tropics, Tropical Depression 9 has developed. Expected to become a Hurricane.

NEW: Well Hurricane season appears to want to go out with a bang, when I got up this morning I figured we would end the day with a Tropical Depression and here we are. As of 5 PM, Tropical Depression 9 has developed about 630 miles SW of the Mouth of the Mississippi River, it is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaias by tomorrow and the first Hurricane of the season on Thursday in the middle of the Gulf.

I know there is a lot of PTSD from looking at a very similar cone to Hurricane Helene, but this system will not bring Hurricane Helene-like impacts to North Carolina. It is forecast to be a Hurricane at landfall along the Mississippi/ Louisiana coastline Friday into Saturday, but I'll urge caution with this forecast from the National Hurricane Center, as they say! The system is still developing, and models sometimes overdo it; in fact, this forecast is on the lower end of some models' strength forecasts. However, one thing is for sure: as it makes landfall along the coast, high wind shear will help weaken it on arrival. Still, there is an increasing risk of dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall along the Northern Gulf coast over the next 84 hours, and residents/visitors from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should begin preparing.

NC Impacts: The remains of what is left of Isaias once it moves inland will race up the Mississippi Valley, and the Center looks to pass west of NC, but thanks to a front and high wind shear, most of the storm leftovers is looking to get pushed east. As of now, rain chances look to increase late Saturday and into Sunday statewide; the main impact will be rain. We will have to watch for the potential of at least some pockets of heavy rainfall across the state on Sunday, which could result in a localized Flash Flooding Risk, especially further west. Being on the right side of leftover Tropical systems can bring a limited spin-up tornado risk, so we will have to monitor that.

The Bottom Line: There is no reason to panic; there is a lot of uncertainty about how much rainfall this weekend, but there is potential for at least some rain here in NC, especially late Saturday and into Sunday. You can trust I have updates!