A vigorous storm system will bring the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across North Carolina, especially Triangle west, after 2PM on Sunday. A warm and humid airmass and an approaching disturbance will combine to produce widespread storms, and some of these storms could be severe. It is now spring and if you have lived in NC long of enough you know what that means severe weather. You'll want to stay weather aware on Sunday afternoon. Below is everything you need to know, and what we know right now.
WHAT: An approaching disturbance from the west will bring the chance of thunderstorms, in fact, The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of NC in a level 3/5 for severe weather. A strong surface low currently over Texas will push east into the state on Sunday, out ahead of the low a warm and moist environment will allow for the development of severe weather. While instability values will be relatively modest, the dynamics involved to overcome that, most likely, with the jet stream winds of 120knots, and 90knots at 500mb (18,000ft). We will have a strong low level shear in place on Sunday afternoon and evening. Additionally, the latest NAM shows around 1500 of ML CAPE(Convective Available Potential Energy) at 9PM on Sunday over a good portion of the state. Expecting 0-6km Shear over 70kts. These values could be overdone, however, models have been very imperative with this. The situation for the Triangle and points east will occur very late at night on Sunday into Monday, thanks to diurnal instability. While storms normally weaken overnight due to nocturnal stabilization, these storms may actually increase in intensity after midnight due to the available instability and the strong kinematic field. This may set the stage for tornadic t-storms to occur overnight, a potentially dangerous situation since most folks will be asleep when the most active weather may be occurring. This includes the foothills, Triad areas, Triangle, and Eastern NC.
Above is the Severe weather threat based on the Storm Prediction Center forecasting, the greatest chance will be from the Triangle (i95 west) into the mountains. I would not be surprised for the Enhanced (3/5) to be expanded east over the coming hours.
THREATS: Based on the current model analysis, all types of severe weather is expected. Damaging winds look to be the greatest threat, however, the threat for tornadoes also is possible. Models are showing discrete supercells out ahead of the main line over Foothills/ Central NC, this trend will be monitored for Tornadoes. As always with all storms, large hail is possible too. The timing of these storms will be from mid- late afternoon to the overnight hours.
Here's a look at the threat-cast for areas in the yellow above on the map.
Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts. Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website!
CALL TO ACTION: People must have a way of hearing warnings, and that way should never, ever be a siren. Their purpose is only to reach a limited number of people outdoors. Every North Carolina home and business must have a NOAA Weather radio, properly programmed and with a fresh battery backup. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone (check notification settings)... even with no good weather app installed you will receive a tornado warning with a loud audible alert.
If you live in a manufactured home, you have to GET OUT if a tornado warning is issued. Have a shelter identified, or other place identified that is open when you are at risk. Know how to get there quickly.
SEVERE WEATHER TEXT ALERTS
I want to remind you with severe weather and hurricane seasons coming up, to sign up for our FREE text alert service! Texts reach you when you have little cell service and you don't have to download anything and take up storage. This is not automated - I am constantly monitoring warnings. That is our priority: your safety. You will only receive alerts for the counties in which you subscribe to. You are welcome to signup/subscribe to as many counties as you wish to and can unsubscribe at any time.
To sign up you will still need to make sure your text (in your cell phone text messages) the EXACT spelling of the capitalized word on the list BELOW to 84483 to sign up for that county.
I have added 100 NC counties out of 100 counties, As always all warnings and watches will be posted on FB for all 100 counties.
(this is exactly how you have to text your county in your cell phone text messages to 84483 to sign up). ALAMANCECOWX ALEXANDERCOWX ALLEGHANYCOWX ANSONCOWX ASHECOWX AVERYCOWX BEAUFORTCOWX BERTIECOWX BLADENCOWX BRUNSWICKCOWX BUNCOMBECOWX BURKECOWX CABARRUSCOWX CALDWELLCOWX CAMDENCOWX CARTERETCOWX CASWELLCOWX CATAWBACOWX CHATHAMCOWX CHEROKEECOWX CHOWANCOWX CLAYCOWX CLEVELANDCOWX COLUMBUSCOWX CRAVENCOWX CUMBERLANDCOWX CURRITUCKCOWX DARECOWX DAVIDSONCOWX DAVIECOWX DUPLINCOWX DURHAMCOWX EDGECOMBECOWX FORSYTHCOWX FRANKLINCOWX GASTONCOWX GATESCOWX GRAHAMCOWX GRANVILLECOWX GREENECOWX GUILFORDCOWX HALIFAXCOWX HARNETTCOWX HAYWOODCOWX HENDERSONCOWX HERTFORDCOWX HOKECOWX HYDECOWX IREDELLCOWX JACKSONCOWX JOHNSTONCOWX JONESCOWX LEECOWX LENOIRCOWX LINCOLNCOWX MACONCOWX MADISONCOWX MARTINCOWX MCDOWELLCOWX MECKLENBURGCOWX MITCHELLCOWX MONTGOMERYCOWX MOORECOWX NASHCOWX NEWHANOVERCOWX NORTHAMPTONCOWX ONSLOWCOWX ORANGECOWX PAMLICOCOWX PASQUOTANKCOWX PENDERCOWX PERQUIMANSCOWX PERSONCOWX PITTCOWX POLKCOWX RANDOLPHCOWX RICHMONDCOWX ROBESONCOWX ROCKINGHAMCOWX ROWANCOWX RUTHERFORDCOWX SAMPSONCOWX SCOTLANDCOWX STANLYCOWX STOKESCOWX SURRYCOWX SWAINCOWX TRANSYLVANIACOWX TYRRELLCOWX UNIONCOWX VANCECOWX WAKECOWX WARRENCOWX WASHINGTONCOWX WATAUGACOWX WAYNECOWX WILKESCOWX WILSONCOWX YADKINCOWX YANCEYCOWX