An approaching cold front will bring the risk of Severe Weather today, The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for severe weather from Raleigh north and east. From Fayetteville to Charlotte and Greensboro a lower 1/5 risk.
An approaching cold front from the north will bring the chance of severe weather, in fact, The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2/5 risk for areas from Raleigh north and east. That being said, I don't expect widespread severe weather it should be more isolated. One Key ingredient for severe weather is CAPE ( Convective Available Potential Energy) this important for the development of severe weather. Models are showing 2000-3000 J/Kg which is more than enough for storms to fire. However, something that could be in place today that might cause storms to struggle to develop is a CAP, The cap is a shallow layer of warm air above the surface in the atmosphere. This is also called an inversion. As energy-rich, warm, damp air rises, it may stop rising if it reaches this layer where it is no longer warmer. Just like a hot air balloon goes up when the balloon is warmer than the surrounding air, the same is true for warm, damp air. The CAP must be broken, think of a pressure cooker. When the cap is relatively weak and plenty of moisture-rich warm air is raising, it will begin to build up at this cap, which is also sometimes called a lid. Today models are showing some CAP; which might help cut down on storms. The longer and stronger the cap is the less amount of thunderstorms will develop. Additionally, the shear will be moderate 20kt-35kt, another important ingredient for severe weather. However, while the wind shear will be moderate directional shear will be lower that's why the Tornado threat will be rather low but not zero.
Above is the forecasted severe weather areas, based on the SPC outlook, the greatest chance to see some severe storms will be in the yellow (slight) area. The main threats will be scattered damaging winds and microbursts
THREATS: The main mode of Severe Weather today will be damaging winds, however While winds through the lowest 3 km will remain modest, vertical shear through a deeper layer with winds up to 20-35 kt at 500 mb will support wind profiles at least marginally sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation thus an isolated Tornado is possible in some storms, but multicellular convection will probably be the dominant mode as storms consolidate into lines and clusters. Strong to damaging wind gusts should be the primary threat with the threat of microbursts in stronger storms . The timing of these storms will be from mid-afternoon to the late evening hours and overnight.
Storms will be moving west to east and north to south this afternoon development will start around 3PM and continue through 11PM, Stay Weather Aware!
Future Radar through Sunday, cooler airmass will follow today's storms for the weekend.
Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts. Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website!
SEVERE WEATHER TEXT ALERTS
I want to remind you with severe weather and hurricane seasons coming up, to sign up for our FREE text alert service! Texts reach you when you have little cell service and you don't have to download anything and take up storage. This is not automated - I am constantly monitoring warnings. That is our priority: your safety. You will only receive alerts for the counties in which you subscribe to. You are welcome to signup/subscribe to as many counties as you wish to and can unsubscribe at any time.
To sign up you will still need to make sure your text (in your cell phone text messages) the EXACT spelling of the capitalized word on the list BELOW to 84483 to sign up for that county.
I have added 100 NC counties out of 100 counties, As always all warnings and watches will be posted on FB for all 100 counties.
(this is exactly how you have to text your county in your cell phone text messages to 84483 to sign up). ALAMANCECOWX ALEXANDERCOWX ALLEGHANYCOWX ANSONCOWX ASHECOWX AVERYCOWX BEAUFORTCOWX BERTIECOWX BLADENCOWX BRUNSWICKCOWX BUNCOMBECOWX BURKECOWX CABARRUSCOWX CALDWELLCOWX CAMDENCOWX CARTERETCOWX CASWELLCOWX CATAWBACOWX CHATHAMCOWX CHEROKEECOWX CHOWANCOWX CLAYCOWX CLEVELANDCOWX COLUMBUSCOWX CRAVENCOWX CUMBERLANDCOWX CURRITUCKCOWX DARECOWX DAVIDSONCOWX DAVIECOWX DUPLINCOWX DURHAMCOWX EDGECOMBECOWX FORSYTHCOWX FRANKLINCOWX GASTONCOWX GATESCOWX GRAHAMCOWX GRANVILLECOWX GREENECOWX GUILFORDCOWX HALIFAXCOWX HARNETTCOWX HAYWOODCOWX HENDERSONCOWX HERTFORDCOWX HOKECOWX HYDECOWX IREDELLCOWX JACKSONCOWX JOHNSTONCOWX JONESCOWX LEECOWX LENOIRCOWX LINCOLNCOWX MACONCOWX MADISONCOWX MARTINCOWX MCDOWELLCOWX MECKLENBURGCOWX MITCHELLCOWX MONTGOMERYCOWX MOORECOWX NASHCOWX NEWHANOVERCOWX NORTHAMPTONCOWX ONSLOWCOWX ORANGECOWX PAMLICOCOWX PASQUOTANKCOWX PENDERCOWX PERQUIMANSCOWX PERSONCOWX PITTCOWX POLKCOWX RANDOLPHCOWX RICHMONDCOWX ROBESONCOWX ROCKINGHAMCOWX ROWANCOWX RUTHERFORDCOWX SAMPSONCOWX SCOTLANDCOWX STANLYCOWX STOKESCOWX SURRYCOWX SWAINCOWX TRANSYLVANIACOWX TYRRELLCOWX UNIONCOWX VANCECOWX WAKECOWX WARRENCOWX WASHINGTONCOWX WATAUGACOWX WAYNECOWX WILKESCOWX WILSONCOWX YADKINCOWX YANCEYCOWX