North Carolina will see some indirect impacts from Hurricane Isaias

Ethan Clark

October 8, 2026 at 11:50:44 AM

🌀 Hurricane Isaias Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I know you've been waiting for this; here's my forecast update on Isaias's indirect impacts on North Carolina this weekend. The positives: This is NOT a repeat of Helene by any means at all, so please don't think that! The weekend isn't a total washout; there will be dry time, and the storm is moving fast enough to clear out pretty quickly. The world is not ending here in NC, and we will be just fine. Don't stress. Isaias became a Hurricane overnight and will keep strengthening until landfall, and it will make landfall along the Florida/Alabama-Mississippi coast on Friday evening; significant impacts are likely in these areas. This update will cover impacts in NC, though. Even though Isaias's center will go into Tennessee and not impact NC directly, we will get indirect impacts from the outer bands and the surrounding front.

📌Here's how I think it'll play out:

RAIN: Scattered to isolated showers will be around across the state Saturday morning, and but there will be breaks and dry time for sure Saturday morning into the afternoon; coverage looks pretty hit or miss. Saturday afternoon and evening rain chances ramp up, especially west and along the coast, it seems; some rain could be heavy at times by the time the evening and overnight rolls along. Sunday morning rain will be around hit or miss throughout the state, and start clearing out Sunday PM/evening. The race in Charlotte is trending drier btw.

Amounts Image 2: Rainfall through Sunday PM, we will see generally 1-2 inches along the high mountains, and in Central and Northern NC. At this point, we're not expecting much flooding; we would only see some if a storm trains over the same area. Most of these areas desperately need the rain. 2-4 inches in the orange-area parts of the mountians/foothills and then coastal areas. Along the coast, the front could enhance rain at times, so we could see some bursts of heavy rainfall. Across the Foothills and Blue Ridge Escarpment, we could see some localized flooding in flood-prone areas if heavier rain sets up, so we will watch it. The rainfall forecast is still fluid, and with any tropical system can change, so stay tuned and don't take it literally this is using my best knowledge of the setup and models to make this.

Wind: Winds will really not be a concern but some gusty winds of 20-35MPH are possible with up to 45MPH in the mountians, maybe a couple of isolated outages in the mountians but I am really not concerned about this.

Tornado Threat: Given that NC is on the right side of the storm, and high wind shear is around, especially late Saturday into Sunday, we could see a low-end tornado threat develop in parts of Eastern/Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday, but the threat is fluid and not a certainty right now. So, stay tuned; overall, it looks pretty low. I'm watching, of course.

😎The Bottom Line: The world is not ending; we will be just fine. Minimal overall impact: This system is moving fast and isn't a repeat of Helene; the weekend won't be a washout and will feature plenty of dry time, including a trending-dry race in Charlotte. Rainfall: Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain across central and northern areas, and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains, foothills, and coast, bringing mostly beneficial moisture but a localized risk of flooding in vulnerable spots. Minor Wind & Low Tornado Risk: Sustained winds and gusts (20–35 MPH, up to 45 MPH in the mountains) are mostly a minor nuisance, though a low-end, highly fluid tornado threat will be monitored across Eastern and Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned on that. This is the forecast as I see it now, but remember it is a science and things can and will change, so I'll do my best to keep you posted!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday increases. Strong to severe storms likely for some.

Ethan Clark

Mar 4, 2025

2 min read

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Well, March is coming in as expected. Our Severe Weather Threat has been upgraded for parts of the state on Wednesday. Welcome to March. If you're new to North Carolina, we can have severe weather at any point of the year, but the spring is when we have most of our severe weather. I know there has been lots of crazy over the past few months across North Carolina, but rest assured, I'll be here to walk you through everything no matter what, without the hype in layman's terms. The amazing meteorologists at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center have issued a level 1, level 2, and now a level 3 out of 5 risk of Severe Weather on Wednesday. I don't make my own severe weather outlooks; these are official from the National Weather Service. I code them into my graphics to help you better see them.

📌WHAT: A rather strong spring cold front will roll through the state on Wednesday. Winds just above the ground will be incredibly strong, 60- 75kts at the 850 MB level. We will have a classic high shear, low CAPE setup on Wednesday. (Wind shear is a change in wind speed and/or direction over a short distance) We will have some wind changing with heights across Eastern North Carolina. This is where the greatest threat of an isolated tornado appears to be.

Threats ⚠️: Several strong-to-severe thunderstorms will likely occur across the state. The greatest risk for severe weather appears to be across Central/Eastern, where the level 2 and level 3/5 (Enhanced Risk) are. The setup will be a classic A squall line, or more accurately a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), is a line of thunderstorms, often forming along or ahead of a cold front. The wind energy alfot would suggest damaging wind gusts of 60-70+MPH will be the main risk with these storms. However, there will be some support for an isolated tornado threat, mainly from Raleigh east embedded in the line as it moves east. We will have extensive wind shear aloft 40-55kt; this will support gusty winds throughout the day, even outside of thunderstorms statewide. The mountains could see wind gusts of 40-55MPH in spots Tuesday night into Wednesday outside of showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere across the state, it'll be breezy with high wind gusts in storms.

TIMING⏰: Showers and storms will move from West to East across the state. It looks like early morning across Western North Carolina, late morning into midday across Central NC, and early/mid-afternoon across Eastern North Carolina. I'll fine-tune the timing and post a map later today. I have some future radar images below. Don't take them literally.

The Bottom Line: Severe Weather is nothing new in North Carolina; we always see it. There is no reason to panic; be weather-aware on Wednesday and have ways to get warnings in case you need them. I do think Wednesday will be rather active, with some wind damage expected in pockets as the storms move east. There will be the potential for some power outages. As always, I'll monitor the forecast over the next 24 hours and provide updates as needed. There is no reason to freak out; we will be just fine. Have a plan in place, and you'll be good!