A robust springtime storm system will likely produce Severe Weather across the southeast Sunday into Monday, this threat will be with us here in NC Sunday during the overnight hours into Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a level 4/5 risk for severe weather for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The threat expands north and east across Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Risk upon us will be way different then what we have seen the past few days. In NC, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2 (Slight Risk) for Raleigh and points east and a Slight Risk Day 4 outlook from Raleigh east on Monday morning. These maps will likely change and be adjusted over the coming days, Sunday during the daytime hours will be fine; the concern is during the overnight hours.
SEVERE WEATHER: We are watching the potential to see severe weather across NC Sunday during the overnight hours into Monday. The models continue to show an impressive springtime storm system pushing across the deep south during the day on Sunday and moving into the state overnight Sunday into Monday. The wind fields with this system will be extremely strong; thus I think we could see a widespread damaging winds threat. I do think at least a few tornadoes will be possible, especially Monday morning east of I-77. There remains a few questions on instability (CAPE) and the timing. Another thing we want to know, will it come through more as a line of storms or a broken line? This is critical to forecast the tornado threat, we will have a much better ideal on this tomorrow evening.
WILL THIS BE LIKE THIS EVENT? No, all events are different and have different characteristics. WHAT CAN WE DO NOW? Right now, you can make sure you have a way to receive warnings that will wake you up. Please make sure you know how to find your county on a map; I'll post the NC county map below.
CALL TO ACTION: People must have a way of hearing warnings, and that way should never, ever be a siren. Their purpose is only to reach a limited number of people outdoors. Every North Carolina home and business must have an NOAA Weather Radio, adequately programmed, and with a fresh battery backup. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone (check notification settings)... even with no good weather app installed you will receive a tornado warning with a loud audible alert.
If you live in a manufactured home, you have to GET OUT if a tornado warning is issued. Have a shelter identified, or other place identified that is open when you are at risk. Know how to get there quickly.
Stay tuned for updates; I'll have one in the morning and then a bunch tomorrow afternoon after 4 PM. Stay tuned for a time regarding a Facebook Live; sometime tomorrow evening. Tomorrow will be a great day, mostly sunny and cool highs in the 60s.