Limited Winter Weather Event Sunday. Cold rain for most.

WINTER WEATHER RAIN/SNOW UPDATE: Good late afternoon, I know there are still a lot of questions about the potential of snow/rain on Sunday. Upon reviewing the latest data, I still have no reason to think this will be a big event, and most areas will just see a cold rain, a pathetic event for snow lovers. Hopefully, you guys get one this year. We still have a couple of weeks left of winter.

📌WHAT: We will have a cold front approaching the state on Sunday along with an upper-level trough to the north, and a developing low-pressure system along the coast. Our models have trended faster with the moisture (more moisture too) and slower with the cold front from the west; cold air chasing moisture almost rarely works out. We have many factors working against much snow accumulation, even in spots that could see some flakes fly on Sunday. We don't have a parent high-pressure system to our North driving down cold air into the state with a classic winter storm setup. Another factor limiting snowfall is that it'll fall during the daytime, so melting will occur even if some snow falls. I only think there could be some limited accumulation on grassy surfaces. I think even if some snow flys the roads will stay wet. After sunset, any moisture left on the roads will turn into black ice.

⏰ Timing: Starting Sunday morning and ending mid to late afternoon Sunday.

Forecast: I haven’t changed much from yesterday's forecast, but I made a couple of tweaks.

-(Dark Green on the map) This is most of Eastern and Coastal North Carolina; a cold plain rain will work in across Eastern and Coastal NC Sunday morning and persist through the afternoon. There could be some wet snowflakes mixing in from the north/west in the section towards the back end of the event, but otherwise nothing really expected. We need the rain, so I welcome it.

-(Light Green on the map) This covers most of Central North Carolina, from Greensboro to Charlotte. I am really thinking mostly of cold, plain light rain. However, as some heavier rates work in there could be a period of light snow that occurs in this area, maybe in the late morning or early afternoon. As a result, there is a nonzero chance of light snow accumulation on elevated/grassy surfaces on Sunday afternoon, if you're lucky, but my current forecast is for some snow mixing in at times. A boom would be a dusting to up to 2 inches in some spots, but that seems a stretch right now; however can't rule it out further west in the light green. The further west you're located in the light green area, the higher the chance of lower moisture.

-Further west, the hatched areas show that some light snow showers are possible across parts of the foothills and mountains later tonight into Sunday morning. Since it'll likely be overnight, there could be some light accumulation of snow, especially at higher elevations, but not much.

😎 The Bottom Line: This will mostly be a cold plain rain event, but some spots will get some snow mixing in at times. I don't wishcast like some meteorologists seem to do; I tell you how it is with unbiased opinions. Looking at the latest data and drawing on my past experience, here is how I think the forecast will play out. You'll not be snowed in there should really be no impacts even where snow falls generally because of the daytime and low rates. Even if you see snow, it'll be light, and with very marginal temperatures, I really only think elevated/grassy surfaces would see anything. Forecasting the weather is a science, and it can change; I don't know why people have been posting crazy model runs for days. This forecast has not been easy, but I appreciate everyone sticking around with me as I try to give you give the best forecast. I also want some snow, but this is not the event. Maybe there will be some surprises and a little snow. I don't see any reason to cancel plans tomorrow, just be aware of potentially some black ice after sunset as it'll turn cold again.

-Ethan