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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Goodbye 2025 and Hello 2026!

Well, it is hard to believe, but the time has finally come. 2025 is about to end and we're going to ring in a new year. Here's a look at our weather headlines for the remainder of the week and into the first weekend and week of 2026.



-New Year's Eve and New Year's Day will be quiet and seasonably nice, with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 40s and 50s for most of the state, and lows in the 20s and 30s, generally about 5-10° warmer than today. No rain expected.


-Friday and the weekend, Friday will be quiet some clouds will be around, but highs will generally be in the 50s for most areas. Saturday, we're still watching a low-pressure system that could bring some rain, especially south on Saturday, but we will circle back to that because it is trending drier. Sunday, it will turn quiet after a low shower chance south.


First week of 2026, as of now it looks quiet and trending warmer we will see how warm we go. Some models have 60s and 70s back, while others keep us seasonal. There is no threats of any winter storms right now, so be careful what you see floating around on the internet etc 😊.


Happy New Year!

 
 
 

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