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Active Weather is ahead; rounds of storms are likely, with some Flash Flooding possible.

Ethan Clark

July 21, 2026 at 8:08:00 PM

Alright guys, let's talk, since it appears everyone in their brother and 3rd cousin once removed has plans this week and into the weekend! Unfortunately, if you have outdoor plans, you'll be at the mercy of Mother Nature for the next few days. An approaching front will bring a very active period of weather through Saturday at least across North Carolina, and if you haven’t had rain yet by Saturday, I am pretty confident you'll have rainfall!


WHAT: A front will move into the state and stall Wednesday night into Thursday; where the stalling occurs will greatly determine who sees potentially significant rainfall through Saturday, which would also have the potential to have Flash Flooding, which is currently favoring somewhere across Central/Eastern NC. Even with drought condtions excessive rainfall just runs off and results in Flash Flooding. Yes, we can flood in droughts.


Wednesday PM/Evening (Image 2): Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, with a limited severe weather risk, with damaging winds as the main threat along the front, which appears to be stalled over parts of Central/Eastern. A level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather has been placed by the Storm Prediction Center; there could be a brief/limited Tornado risk Wednesday evening into the overnight hours (watching)


Thursday: Waves of on-and-off showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the state on and off, favoring Central and Eastern NC. Some could be heavy at times, resulting in potential flash flooding for some. Low severe risk at this point and much cooler temps in the 70s/80s for most areas due to considerable clouds.


Friday: The highest storm chances/rain will be in Central and Southern/Southeastern/Eastern sections of the state. Not a washout, but storms definitely around.

Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend; not a washout by any means, but better chances for more storms and rain the further south and east you are.


The Bottom Line: We need the rain, but all at once could result in some Flash Flooding. I'll be watching over the coming days and pinpoint where exactly as we get a clearer picture. Stay tuned for updates; here are just some thoughts!

-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Flood Watch issued, risk of some Flash Flooding on Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY PM: Hey guys, let's talk about Wednesday! I know people's nerves are running high, and everyone is very worried, so I'd like to walk you through the forecast for Wednesday. A Flood Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Davidson, Durham, Forsyth, Granville, Guilford, Hoke, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Orange, Person, Randolph, Richmond, Scotland, Stanly, Vance, and Warren County from Wednesday afternoon until Wednesday night.



Why: The concern is scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that will develop across Central and Western North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon and evening. This looks to be a very summertime setup, but saturated ground leads to a greater concern. How will the storms form, the spark from the heating of the day and the lee trough (often called the Piedmont trough), which is lower pressure that often sets up in the summer east of the mountains. It usually runs north-south across the Piedmont roughly along I-85 or U.S. 1 from around Charlotte through the Triad up toward Raleigh and into southern Virginia. This is where the air rises and clouds and storms start forming, especially on hot and humid days, We should have a good amount of that tomorrow. I thought I would give a litlte science behind it.

STORMS: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow afternoon and evening across Central and Western NC, with only an isolated storm chance for Eastern NC. The concern is that the hit-or-miss storms that develop tomorrow will bring some heavy rainfall, and any heavy rainfall over the Western Piedmont is really not needed, given how high area streams and rivers are already running. Unfortunately, even with the advancements in technology we still can't pinpoint exactly where the scattered showers and thunderstorms will popup. This is why it is difficult to say exactly who will be affected. The atmosphere is favorable for some storms to drop a quick amount of rain, but I don't expect it to be as widespread as on Sunday. However, if your town sees it, you'll be saying Well, we got flooding. These will be hit or miss storms and not a tropical system, very summerlike so not everyone will even see rain tomorrow.


The Bottom Line: 🌧️ Wednesday will bring a classic summertime setup, with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms will pop up along the lee trough (Piedmont trough) across Central and Western NC. With saturated ground, any heavy downpours could quickly lead to localized flooding, especially in areas where streams and rivers are already high due to Chantal. Not everyone will see storms, but those who do may experience a sudden downpour of rainfall. Stay weather-aware, keep an eye on the radar, and don't drive through any flooded roads. No reason to change plans, but be aware, just in case all will be fine. I'll provide radar updates as normal.


-Ethan

 
 
 

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