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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Another round of Winter Weather possible for some of the state Friday.

Winter Weather Update: Let's address the elephant in the room that's been on many people's minds. I've been waiting for more data before I touched on this subject, but now is the time, as we're only about 72 hours out. There is the risk of some more winter weather across parts of the state on Friday, but there is considerable uncertainty regarding the setup, as with nearly any winter weather event in North Carolina! If you want a nice snowstorm with several inches of snow, this is not your storm, so don't shoot the messenger. This setup is not a raid on the grocery store; regardless of what happens, you will not be stuck in your house for days.


-Wednesday and Thursday: We can expect some areas of fog in the morning, followed by highs in the 40s and 50s. The same setup is expected on Thursday, but with increasing clouds by the afternoon and evening.


📌THE SETUP FRIDAY: High pressure will be to the north, and a low-pressure system from the Gulf will move north and east across the south into North Carolina, bringing moisture. Depending on how fast it arrives, there is the potential for winter weather on Friday across parts of the state. Models still vary in the exact timing of the onset of moisture and in how much moisture the system will have. There remains considerable uncertainty. As you guys all know with me, I like to be transparent and give everyone the data to help them plan.


📌Scenario A: Cold air is a little stronger, the low-pressure system arrives faster, and as a result, a wider of part of Central and Western North Carolina sees Winter Weather on Friday morning. This setup would favor mainly north and west of Raleigh to see a wintry mix, Battleground between snow/sleet/freezing rain, potentially changing to all rain at the end for most. Eastern/Coastal North Carolina will have just a cold rain on Friday.


-We've been cold, so even just limited amounts of moisture could still cause travel problems, especially on Friday morning into early afternoon. Doesn’t look like a lot of moisture, so don't think we will see big snow amounts or anything like that. But some ice/snow is possible with this Scenario.


📌 Scenario B: High pressure retreats to the north faster, temperatures are warmer on Friday, and the low pressure system is delayed until later in the day, the best chance of any winter weather would be confined to just some impacts in the mountains and Western Foothills. All rain for everyone else into Saturday morning.


What Scenario do I think will happen? Right now, I really want to give them equal odds, but the data is trending today more towards scenario A. I do think everything will end up changing to mostly rain towards the end of the event for nearly everyone, as it looks right now. Let's see how we trend on Wednesday; we could trend just as quickly back to B.


😎The Bottom Line: Quiet weather for the next 48 hours, watching Friday for potential winter weather impacts across parts of the state. The best chance as of now is along and west of the I-85 corridor, but nothing is really locked in place. If you're a big snow lover, this is not your storm at all. Amounts are limited, regardless, and messy. Keep checking back over the next 48-72 hours, but if you have travel plans, especially morning/early afternoon Friday across parts of Central/Foothills and Western NC, be aware you might need to change them. If you have outdoor plans, that rain will impact them anywhere. I would go ahead and move those to Friday. I'll keep you updated.


-Ethan

 
 
 

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