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Winter Weather Update: First Call Snow Map for Eastern NC.
Winter Weather Update: Well, y'all have all been waiting for my first call snow map. I've been very cautious with forecasting this storm, and while there will be some snow, it's not gonna be a blockbuster snow event that many of your apps have said. I am releasing my first call snow/sleet for our winter weather event that parts of the state will see Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
WHAT: A low-pressure system will slide southeast off the Southeast Coastline through the day on Tuesday, bringing some limited moisture to parts of Eastern NC. One thing that is for sure a guarantee is cold air; it'll be very cold. There is no question about that; any snow that does end up falling will stick easily, thanks to very cold temperatures. Unfortunately for snow lovers, models have been trending drier with this system. Why, well models underestimated the strength of the high-pressure system bringing in the cold dry air to North Carolina. This was a scenario that I talked about the last few days a suppressed system off the coast. So, I do still think parts of Eastern NC will see some snow falling, but I really don't think it'll be a huge event. No, you'll not be snowed in for weeks. There will be some road impacts, but conditions will improve with sunshine on Wednesday and Thursday.
Snowfall Amounts: Again, this will not be a blockbuster snow event, so don't get your hopes up for that. The exact track of the storm, which is still two days away will matter, so I have rather low confidence on this snowfall map. Snow will be mainly east of Raleigh, with some flakes/dusting if you're lucky from Raleigh and points east. If the storm shifts Northwest 50 miles, the light blue will shift west, something to watch over the next 24-36 hours. However, if models shift east, some snow may not even make it as far west as Raleigh.
Dark Blue: Areas along and east of I-95 will have the best chance of snow accumulation; I think a dusting to 1 inch of snow will fall here. There is the potential of some locally higher amounts along the coast/ part of the Outer Banks. Some areas might end up with 2+ inches, but the confidence is not high enough to forecast that officially. However, I believe in being transparent, so I wanted to make you aware of that.
-TIMING: Snow will start Tuesday late afternoon evening and be on and off until early Wednesday morning. There will be some hazardous travel once the snow starts falling, so take it easy if on the roads Tuesday night or Wednesday morning across parts of Central and Eastern NC.
-The Bottom Line: Key Takeaways The Bottom Line: There is no reason for mass panic across Eastern/Coastal NC, I know you've not seen snow in a very long time, but I am rooting for some snow for y'all. No, you're not going to be snowed for 2 weeks. Don't go raid the grocery stores; models continue to change and will shift around the next 36 hours. If you've been following me for several days, this setup looks more like scenario B. Forecasting winter weather in North Carolina is far from easy; many factors must come together. Forecasts always have high bust potential here in NC; I’ve spent hours pouring through data, looking at the atmosphere, and using some experience from past storms to make this forecast. I'll monitor the trends on the forecast over the next 36 hours and update accordingly.
-Ethan
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