Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Winter Storm Update, snowfall totals increase again. A more significant Winter Storm is Likely for Eastern North Carolina!

Ethan Clark
Jan 21, 2025
4 min read

Winter Storm Update: Well, the snow dance folks have really been at it. A more significant Winter Storm is now expected for Eastern North Carolina; the writing is on the wall that the first significant snowstorm for Eastern North Carolina in years is on the way. I know some people are very excited, others not so much. Snow is on the way, and models have continued to increase moisture levels for parts of Central/Eastern/Coastal NC. As a result, I've increased my snowfall totals across the board. I talked about how small shifts in the forecast over 50 miles would greatly impact the forecast, well that has been happening, and I am adjusting the forecast to account for that. There is no reason to panic, no the world is not going to end just be careful, and you'll be just fine!

As usual, it’s not easy to get snow in North Carolina outside of the immediate mountains; a lot of factors have to come together to make it happen. Any snow that does fall will stick to everything quickly, and temperatures will be below freezing the whole event. So, any snow that does fall will cause widespread travel problems across Central/Eastern/Coastal NC.

I've adjusted my snowfall totals across the board, and I think a more significant snowstorm will be likely across Eastern North Carolina with some impacts across Central NC too now.

👀 WHAT

-As I’m sure many of y’all are aware, I’m very careful about sharing information and want to keep it as accurate as possible. I don’t believe in fluff, hype, or clicks. I’m just here to help you and save lives. A low-pressure system will slide southeast off the Southeast Coastline through the day on Tuesday, bringing some limited moisture to parts of Eastern NC. One thing that is for sure a guarantee is cold air; it'll be very cold. There is no question about that; any snow that does end up falling will stick easily, thanks to very cold temperatures. Based on the NW trends the last 24 hours, more moisture appears likely across Eastern North Carolina, thus I think more snow is coming.

Snowfall Amounts: This does appear to be a slightly more impactful winter storm for Eastern/Coastal NC, so I expect travel problems to start tomorrow night and last on and off through the end of the week and into the weekend

Light Blue (Dusting-2 inches) This area is one of the biggest wildcards, I expect some snow to overspread this area, so I do think some accumulation of snow is possible from basically Raleigh/Greensboro/Charlotte east; some accumulating snow is likely dusting for most areas, but further east in the light blue 1-2 inches seems possible. There will be some travel impacts, especially as you go east in the light blue area. I have lower than usual confidence in this area, small shifts in the low track can lead to more snow or less to no snow as you head west. People will have to sweat the back edge of the snow, but East of Greensboro to Raleigh has the best chance to see snow in this area. Something we will watch. Just telling you exactly how it is.

Dark Blue: (2 to 3 inches) Areas mainly along and East of Raleigh have the best chance of seeing accumulating snowfall of more than an inch. There will likely be bands in the dark blue that'll see 2-3 inches of snow, with some locally higher spots as you move through the dark blue areas. Sleet will mix in right along the coast.

Turquoise: (3-6 inches) A rare snowfall along the coastal areas is likely. Several inches of snow will likely be along parts of Eastern/Coastal NC, into the Outer Banks, and down south, too. This should be really cool to see for the beaches and Eastern NC, I am rooting for the snow lovers; it has been years. Wind could make for some blowing snow along the Outer Banks.

Hazardous travel will be likely regardless of the amount of snow that falls, ground temperatures are cold, and snow will stick.

-TIMING: Snow will start late this afternoon /evening and be on and off until early Wednesday morning. Hazardous driving likely this evening and into the overnight and morning.

If you must drive, here are 3 tips for snowy roads: 1️⃣ Slow down, 2️⃣ Increase following distance, 3️⃣ Avoid sudden braking. Stay safe! 🚗❄️

Getting stuck is no fun. Keep a winter emergency kit in your car: blankets, flashlight, snacks, water, and a phone charger. Be prepared! 🧣🚨

Clear snow off your vehicle before driving! Snow can reduce your visibility and fly off, endangering other drivers. 🧹🚗

The Bottom Line: Snow is on the way to parts of Central/Eastern/ Coastal NC; this forecast has been a headache to track with lots of last-minute changing. That's what keeps it fun, though. The first significant snowfall in years is on the way for Eastern North Carolina. I would prepare now for impacts to businesses, roads, schools, and anything that requires travel to parts of Central/Eastern/Coastal NC this evening through Wednesday and other impacts lasting in harder-hit areas into the end of the week. If you've been following me for several days, this setup looks more like scenario B. Forecasting winter weather in North Carolina is far from easy; many factors must come together. Forecasts always have high bust potential here in NC; I’ve spent hours going through data, looking at the atmosphere, and using some experience from past storms to make this forecast. I'll be monitoring and providing updates throughout today.

-Ethan