Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Winter Storm Expected to impact parts of North Carolina Friday into Saturday. First Call snow/ice maps.

ncwxauthority
Jan 8, 2025
3 min read

Winter Weather Update: First Call Snow and Ice Maps, along with my thoughts, confidence is high that a Winter Storm will impact North Carolina, but there remain some uncertainties. Well, it has been over 1,000 days since parts of North Carolina have seen accumulating snow and ice; that streak looks to be broken later this week for some. It’s been several years since we’ve had a significant, impactful Winter Storm in North Carolina, and this one could be notable for parts of the state.

As usual, it’s not easy to get snow in North Carolina outside of the immediate mountains; a lot of factors have to come together to make it happen. True to form, Winter Weather events in North Carolina are always a complete mess, and this storm will likely be no different.

👀 WHAT

-As I’m sure many of y’all are aware, I’m very careful about sharing information and want to keep it as accurate as possible. I don’t believe in fluff, hype, or clicks. I’m just here to help you and save lives.

-Confidence is increasing that a classic Miller A low-pressure system will move along the Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States Thursday night into Friday, bringing winter weather to parts of the state.

-The system will overspread Western North Carolina Friday morning into the afternoon and the rest of the state Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday before moving out of the state Saturday morning.

-A Winter Storm will impact North Carolina confidence is high in this, but exact amounts are still up in the air. I am releasing my first call snow/sleet map and Freezing rain map.

-I want to point out something before I dive into it, DO NOT FOCUS ON EXACT AMOUNTS. There will be travel impacts where frozen precipitation falls; I expect the most impacts for travel to be Friday evening through the overnight into Saturday morning, with improving conditions Saturday afternoon thanks to sunshine and temps rising above freezing. Refreezing is expected Saturday night and Sunday night, so some travel impacts could linger through the weekend into Monday for some not all. There is no reason to raid the grocery stores.

ACCUMULATION: (Snow/Sleet Map Image 1)

This forecast map includes sleet in the totals, too.

Dusting-1 Inch Area (Area with the highest uncertainties The Battleground)

I expect snow to fall, and then it'll switch to a mix of sleet and snow and potentially to Freezing Rain. Some accumulation is possible, but I expect hazardous travel to likely starting Friday evening.

1-3 (Dark Blue Area) 1-3 inches of snow is possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning; some sleet could mix in as well.

3-5 (Purple) The mountains mainly above 2,500FT will see 3-5 inches of snow starting Friday and lasting into Saturday, with some NW areas likely seeing 5-8 inches in the favored locations above 3,500ft.

Confidence is high; a Winter Storm will impact North Carolina; the greatest impacts will be Friday afternoon into Saturday. There could be some scattered power outages where ice/snow build-up winds will not be too strong, but I can't rule out some of power outages.

The Bottom Line: Ground temperatures are cold; as soon as frozen precipitation starts falling, it'll stick to everything that is no treated easily. The forecast will continue to change some over the next 36 hours, I'll be watching the trends and provide updates as needed. There is no reason to panic, but be prepared for travel impacts across parts of the state Friday into the weekend, improving Sunday into Monday. Take it easy if you must travel, or better yet stay home Friday night into Saturday if you can to avoid getting into crashes. I’ll keep you in the loop with trustworthy, no-nonsense information.

I love Winter Weather forecasting. I'll keep you updated!

Forecasting winter weather in North Carolina is far from easy, there are many factors that must come together. Forecasts always have high bust potential here in NC, I’ve spent hours this afternoon pouring through data looking at the atmosphere and using some experience from past storms to make this forecast.

-Ethan