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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Winter Storm Expected to Impact NC Friday into Saturday. Updated Snow/Sleet/ Freezing Rain Maps.

Winter Storm Update: Here are my updated snow/sleet maps and freezing rain, along with my thoughts; the writing is on the wall, and we will have our first significant statewide Winter Storm in over 1,000 days. The National Weather Service has placed most of Central and Western NC under a Winter Storm Warning. It’s been several years since we’ve had a significant, impactful Winter Storm in North Carolina, and this one could be notable for parts of the state.


Since my last update, I've adjusted my snow/sleet Freezing rain maps just slightly to account for some forecast changes and changes in my thinking. The main change is I've added parts of Eastern/NE NC into the forecast for some Winter Weather.


As usual, it’s not easy to get snow in North Carolina outside of the immediate mountains; a lot of factors have to come together to make it happen. True to form, Winter Weather events in North Carolina are always a complete mess, and this storm will likely be no different. This storm will have some snow, but it'll also have lots of sleet and Freezing rain. I think it'll be an icy/snow mess type storm, especially along and East of I-85, with more just snow west.


If you don't read anything else on my post, if you have plans, especially away from the coast Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday, I am certain there will be travel impacts so plan accordingly.


👀 WHAT

-As I’m sure many of y’all are aware, I’m very careful about sharing information and want to keep it as accurate as possible. I don’t believe in fluff, hype, or clicks. I’m just here to help you and save lives.


-Confidence is high that a classic Miller A low-pressure system will move along the Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States tonight into Friday, bringing winter weather to parts of the state.


-The system will overspread Western North Carolina Friday morning into the afternoon and the rest of the state Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday before moving out of the state Saturday morning.


-A Winter Storm will impact North Carolina. Confidence is high in this, but exact amounts are still up in the air. I have updated my forecast maps this evening and feel pretty good about them, I will say everyone has their own opinion, and forecasting winter weather in North Carolina is not easy. So you might see other maps that are different floating around; this is just what I think will happen. Don't get too caught up on exact amounts. Focus on the impacts.


-I want to point out something before I dive into it, DO NOT FOCUS ON EXACT AMOUNTS. There will be travel impacts where frozen precipitation falls; I expect the most impacts for travel to be Friday afternoon through the overnight into Saturday morning, with improving conditions Saturday afternoon thanks to sunshine and temps rising above freezing. Refreezing is expected Saturday night and Sunday night, so some travel impacts could linger through the weekend into Monday for some not all. There is no reason to raid the grocery stores.



Dusting-1.5 Inch Area (Area with the highest uncertainties The Battleground)


I expect snow to fall, and then it'll switch to a mix of sleet and snow and potentially to Freezing Rain. Some accumulation is possible, but I expect hazardous travel to likely starting Friday evening.


1.5-4 (Dark Blue Area) 1.5-4 inches of snow is possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning; some sleet could mix in as well.


3-6 (Purple) The mountains mainly above 2,000FT will see 3-5 inches of snow starting Friday and lasting into Saturday, with some NW areas likely seeing 5-9 inches in the favored locations above 3,500ft.


Image 2: Freezing Rain, everyone hates Freezing Rain it sticks to everything and makes it an icy mess. I expect parts of Central/Eastern NC to see Freezing rain in one spot on top of the snow/sleet that already came down.


With freezing rain, any amount is dangerous. a small amount of icing can make on roads/parking lots/sidewalks can create substantial slip & fall dangers, as well as icy roads with many more accidents.


Bright Pink Area (0.05-0.25") Glaze of Ice is possible if this happens, a few down trees and scattered power outages are possible.


Eastern NC: (Light Pink)A brief light glaze will be possible before changing to all rain overnight Friday. Limited impacts are expected, but some slick spots can't be ruled out late Friday night.


Image 3: Timing: Winter Weather timeline for Friday, since this is the number one question, I put together a timeline map of when winter precipitation will likely start falling across the state on Friday. I will note that, thanks to the extremely cold weather over the last few weeks ground temperatures are very cold, so as soon as snow/sleet/ freezing rain starts falling, it'll stick to everything. I expect road conditions to go downhill quickly through the afternoon and evening. Don't take this timeline literally but it gives you a good range of when precipitation will start falling based on the latest data.



Confidence is high; a Winter Storm will impact North Carolina; the greatest impacts will be Friday afternoon into Saturday. There could be some scattered power outages where ice/snow build-up winds will not be too strong, but I can't rule out some of power outages. So, I would be prepared for power outages, especially in the freezing rain areas, and I think some in the mountains are caused by the snow due to the weak power infrastructure.


The Bottom Line: Ground temperatures are cold; as soon as frozen precipitation starts falling, it'll stick to everything that is no treated easily. The forecast will continue to change some over the next 12 hours, I'll be watching the trends and provide updates as needed but I feel pretty good about this forecast. There is no reason to panic, but be prepared for travel impacts across parts of the state Friday into the weekend, improving Sunday into Monday. Take it easy if you must travel, or better yet stay home Friday night into Saturday if you can to avoid getting into crashes. I’ll keep you in the loop with trustworthy, no-nonsense information.


I love Winter Weather forecasting. I'll keep you updated!


Forecasting winter weather in North Carolina is far from easy, there are many factors that must come together. Forecasts always have high bust potential here in NC, I’ve spent hours this afternoon pouring through data, looking at the atmosphere and using some experience from past storms to make this forecast.

-Ethan

 
 
 

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