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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

WILL IT BE COLD AND SNOWY FOR JANUARY?

Writer: ncwxauthority
ncwxauthority
Dec 30, 2018
2 min read

With December and 2018 coming to an end, now is the time to start looking at what January has in store for NC. Given our past year with weather here in NC anything could happen, it doesn't appear NC has a set schedule this year! Here's a look, read more detail below the picture!


Unfortunately for snow lovers there is no indication of snowfall for the next 2-3 weeks, other than one chance the end of next week in the mountains. January looks to start off mild with temperatures near or slightly above average and with that comes rain too. Towards the middle of the month models are suggesting are change toward more below average temps. Also a great set up for some winter weather, as the polar jet drops south bringing colder weather while the subtropical jet brings precipitation and storms. While the models have been changing dramatically the confidence toward the end of the month is much less than beginning.


Highlights:

  • ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FIRST 15 DAYS

  • NO MAJOR SNOW EVENTS FIRST 15 DAYS

  • MORE RAIN EXPECTED

  • PATTERN CHANGE MIDDLE END OF THE MONTH

  • COLDER MIDDLE OF MONTH ONWARD

  • MOUTAIN SNOWS

  • WINTER STORM THREAT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS

  • COLD RAIN EVENTS

The year we have had regarding anything can happen so stay tuned as things change daily. I'll be with you no matter what happens!


REVIEW ON DECEMBER OUTLOOK ISSUED FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER

UP & DOWN TEMPERATURE SWINGS

COLDER WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN END OF DEC

COLD RAIN EVENTS SNOW EVENTS IN WESTERN NC (MOUNTAINS)

SNOW EVENT ACROSS OF LARGE PORTION OF NC POSS

SOME WARM TEMPS POSSIBLE

SOME PARTS OF NC WHITE CHRISTMAS??

Well the December outlook was nailed extremely well! We had up and down temps throughout, lots of cold rain events, one major snow event, beginning and end of the month had warm temps into the 70s, and lots of snow events in the mountains. I would give the forecast about 95% correct other than most of December was above average precip.

 
 
 

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