Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

VERY COLD WEEK AHEAD, SNOW?

ncwxauthority
Nov 26, 2018
2 min read

Today's cold front opens the door for the coldest weather of the season so far to start moving in. Starting tomorrow temperatures will be downright cold highs will be the 40s and low 30s in the mountains.

In fact even more interesting will be the low temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

Here's a look at the predicted wind chills Wednesday morning at 7am brrr...

Here's a look at Western NC predicted Wind Chill on Wednesday morning

Below is the NAM forecast for Wind Chills on Wednesday morning right in line with ours..

BRRRR is the real answer

To make matters even worse this will allow for Wednesday to be the coldest day thus far, many places will stay in the 30s for highs. That's the HIGH!

Above is a look at the NAM's predictions for highs on Wednesday, I do expect it to be cold but thinking temps will recover into the low 40s for central and eastern NC. Extremely cold either way with the winds.

SNOW

Snow will also be possible for areas in the northern Mountains (3,500ft+) 1-2" will be possible Tuesday night. Greater amounts of snow possible above 4,500ft 3-5" with locally higher amounts. Counties with the best chance to see snow tonight and again on Tuesday night are: from (North to South) Ashe, Watauga, Avery, Caldwell mountains, Mitchell, Yancey, Madison, Haywood, Buncombe Mountains. More information to follow in another post. Below is a look at NAM forecast for snow.

Bottom Line: Starting Tuesday lasting through Thursday will be downright cold, winds chills below zero for the mountains. Two nights below freezing statewide including the coast! Time to get your heavy winter jackets out if you have not already done so!

Models are hinting at a warm-up Saturday and Sunday of this week, more updates to follow. For now stay warm!