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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Update watching a Tropical wave near the Caribbean Ocean

Tropical Update: On Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring several tropical waves and systems, but the one of most concern for many is the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands. The tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity; a Tropical Depression or Storm could develop over the next few days. After that, the system will move into the Caribbean Ocean and then likely into the Gulf of Mexico. Models are very interested in developing this system, but it is unknown how strong and where the system will go. This system could be the one to watch for potential United States impacts; it is too soon to know if it will ever impact North Carolina. However, I do believe we should monitor it as we do with every storm. Just be aware you might see scary model runs over the next few days; no one knows what will happen with 98L right now. I'll keep you posted. Hurricane Fiona is now a major hurricane and is forecasted to brush Bermuda and then impact parts of Canada; the only impact on North Carolina is increased surf and rip currents.



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