Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

There is potential for another round of winter weather this week across parts of North Carolina!

Ethan Clark

Feb 2

2 min read

Headlines This Week, Potentially some more winter weather midweek? Hey everyone, I've seen the messages, the rumors, and the apps. Yes, there is potential for another round of light snow/sleet mid-week in parts of the state. This won't be a winter storm, and nothing like the last event, but the potential (high uncertainty) is there for at least some more snow for parts of the state. I'll explain more below. At this point, if you don't laugh, you cry right.

Tonight-Tuesday: Lows will fall into the 10s and 20s across the state, so anything that hasn’t evaporated off the ground will refreeze, so watch out for black ice in the morning, especially in shaded areas. Highs on Tuesday will warm more into the upper 30s and 40s for most areas with increasing clouds from west to east.

Wednesday/Thursday: A clipper system will approach from the west, leading to increasing moisture. Scattered rain showers will move in Tuesday night into Wednesday across the state. It doesn’t appear to be too much rain, but some rain is expected for most of Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures should be mostly above freezing at this point, so it should be all rain. Things get a little more interesting on Wednesday evening and overnight hours, the low slows down, and our next cold front tries to catch up to the moisture.

-It is possible some of the rain turns over to sleet or snow, mainly across Northern/Central parts of the state on Wednesday evening and overnight on Wednesday. There is a nonzero chance of some light snow/sleet accumulation overnight on Wednesday, temperatures would be warmer, so this would be wet/slushy stuff. It does not look like a big deal, and it is not a slam dunk right now because cold air chasing moisture does not always work out. However, several models have it. This could impact some travel, especially on Thursday morning. The favored areas seem mainly and especially north of Raleigh and Greensboro. Given the high amount of interest and the apps showing it, I've decided it was worth mentioning even though I was watching it all weekend. I just figured the snow fatigue was high and waited.

Thursday PM/Sunday: Sunshine returns and it stays chilly with highs in the 30s and 40s, some a little warmer at times through the weekend. The weather looks quiet as of now.

The Bottom Line: Snow fatigue is real. This would be the 3rd week in a row of winter weather. I get it! This system has limited moisture and will mainly be rain, but there is a nonzero chance of some light accumulation in some spots. I'll watch the data and have more thoughts on it over the next 24-48 hours, nothing to panic about! We will be just fine! Hopefully, it does not happen, but there is enough data to mention it at this point!

-Ethan