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Still watching the Tropics: Wednesday Evening Update
TROPICAL UPDATE: Things we know for certain about this system regardless it hits us or not. It will not bring us snow Yes, I am still monitoring the tropical wave that is now near Puerto Rico, which could lead to tropical development. There remains many questions and not many answers, but we’re seeing some patterns in the models and atmospheric conditions to give us a better idea of what might happen. The overall forecast remains uncertain, but I am going to closely explain the forecast. As of this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center is still monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the Central Tropical Atlantic. Environmental Conditions are not favorable for development until the Bahamas, so if you have plans elsewhere in the Caribbean, there is no reason to worry about it. The National Hurricane says interests in the Bahamas and the southeastern US should monitor the progress of this system. I am watching it closely, and to be transparent, we still don’t know where it might go. It still has a 60% chance of development.
Key Messages:
-Things that have changed today: Models are showing a weaker system at first that gradually slides west towards the southeast United States, with more models taking it over Florida into the Gulf and then back into the Atlantic. That would be a trend to watch, but there is no guarantee.
-The system is expected to slowly move west towards the Bahamas over the next few days, where models start to develop it. It has not been officially designated an Invest yet, so we don’t have the special hurricane models yet. We don’t have a closed center, so model data is very unreliable right now. We have seen this clearly over the past 24 hours the back and forth.
-REGARDLESS NO IMPACTS TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND, any impacts if anything would likely be sometime next week. Models range from early to late week now. We have plenty of time to watch it.
That was the Cliff notes; if I lost you there, you know everything you need to know.
Now deep into the forecast.
INSIDE THE FORECAST: We have a tropical wave that is moving through the Caribbean; it has been fighting off dry air and wind shear both of which make it hard for tropical systems to develop. Now it has entered a somewhat more favorable area as it moves over Puerto Rico and into the southern Bahamas over the next few days. As the system moves west, the forecast remains challenging partly because of this. The wave axis is large and as you see in image 4, which part of the wave becomes the dominant part? In short, where does the center of circulation form? We will have to watch this; models don’t know which part of the wave consolidates into the low and closed circulation.
Track 3:(Purple) Does the northern part of the wave become the dominant circulation? This would allow the system to quickly form over the next few day's strength and move out to sea, not impacting anyone.
Track 2 (Red) Does the middle part become the dominant part of the low, but the system is slow misses the incoming trough and stalls off the East Coast of Florida or slowly moves north-northeastward towards the Carolinas? This would allow the system to potentially impact NC next week.
Track 3 (Orange) Does the southern part of the wave become the dominate low, and moves slowly west in the Gulf of Mexico and then maybe back over Florida into the Atlantic over the next week or so?
These are all things we've got to watch and nowcast as the wave moves west; it'll take some time, and we really will only have a clear idea once the system starts forming a center, allowing models to figure out where it might go. We still have lots of time; I expect the forecast to become clearer over the next 36-72 hours. We have the solutions for now, and it is just an uncertain forecast with a hurry-up and wait. There is no reason to panic or cancel plans at this time. It is definitely something to keep an eye on. You're going to continue to see hype posts and scary news articles. Rest assured, you don't need to panic. It would be a good time to review your hurricane plans, especially along the coast, as we're heading into the heart of Hurricane season. Models are all over the place, and no one can tell you where or what will happen exactly to this system other than looking at possible paths based on the environmental setups. The Bottom Line is to keep an eye on it, but we're in a hurry-up wait period. There's no reason to cancel plans or start preparing. Just stay aware. I'll continue to provide as many updates as possible to help you and your family as I have for eight years through Hurricane season.
-Ethan
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