An approaching cold front will bring the risk of Severe Weather today, The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for severe weather from Charlotte, Fayetteville, Greensboro, and Raleigh north and east. The rest of the state is under a level 1/5.
An approaching cold front from the west will bring the chance of severe weather, in fact, The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2/5 risk for a good portion of the state. That being said, I don't expect widespread severe weather while the whole state is in the risk it should be more isolated. One Key ingredient for severe weather is CAPE ( Convective Available Potential Energy) this important for the development of severe weather. Models are showing 2000-3000 J/Kg which is more than enough for storms to fire. However, something that could be in place today that might cause storms to struggle to develop is a CAP, The cap is a shallow layer of warm air above the surface in the atmosphere. This is also called an inversion. As energy-rich, warm, damp air rises, it may stop rising if it reaches this layer where it is no longer warmer. Just like a hot air balloon goes up when the balloon is warmer than the surrounding air, the same is true for warm, damp air. The CAP must be broken, think of a pressure cooker. When the cap is relatively weak and plenty of moisture-rich warm air is raising, it will begin to build up at this cap, which is also sometimes called a lid. Today models are split on how strong the cap is and if the storms can break, so that's the main question. The longer and stronger the cap is the less amount of thunderstorms will develop. Additionally, the shear will be moderate 20kt-40kt, another important ingredient for severe weather. However, while the wind shear will be moderate directional shear will be lower that's why the Tornado threat will be rather low but not zero.
Above is the forecasted severe weather areas, based on the SPC outlook, the greatest chance to see some severe storms will be in the yellow (slight) area. The main threats will be scattered damaging winds and large hail.
THREATS: The main mode of Severe Weather today will be damaging winds, however While winds through the lowest 3 km will remain modest, vertical shear through a deeper layer with winds up to 20-40 kt at 500 mb will support wind profiles at least marginally sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation thus an isolated Tornado is possible in some storms, but multicellular convection will probably be the dominant mode as storms consolidate into lines and clusters. Strong to damaging wind gusts should be the primary threat with large hail to ping pong balls. The timing of these storms will be from mid-afternoon to the late evening hours and overnight. Something to watch will be if any discrete supercells form these will pose a greater risk of an isolated tornado and damaging winds.
Storms will begin to fire across the mountains by mid afternoon and push east through the afternoon and evening through about midnight, these storms will be in a scattered to a broken line. Not everybody will see thunderstorms. Storms will also develop along the sea breeze by late afternoon, we will watch the CAP to see what it does.
Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts. Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website!
SEVERE WEATHER TEXT ALERTS
I want to remind you with severe weather and hurricane seasons coming up, to sign up for our FREE text alert service! Texts reach you when you have little cell service and you don't have to download anything and take up storage. This is not automated - I am constantly monitoring warnings. That is our priority: your safety. You will only receive alerts for the counties in which you subscribe to. You are welcome to signup/subscribe to as many counties as you wish to and can unsubscribe at any time.
To sign up you will still need to make sure your text (in your cell phone text messages) the EXACT spelling of the capitalized word on the list BELOW to 84483 to sign up for that county.
I have added 100 NC counties out of 100 counties, As always all warnings and watches will be posted on FB for all 100 counties.
(this is exactly how you have to text your county in your cell phone text messages to 84483 to sign up). ALAMANCECOWX ALEXANDERCOWX ALLEGHANYCOWX ANSONCOWX ASHECOWX AVERYCOWX BEAUFORTCOWX BERTIECOWX BLADENCOWX BRUNSWICKCOWX BUNCOMBECOWX BURKECOWX CABARRUSCOWX CALDWELLCOWX CAMDENCOWX CARTERETCOWX CASWELLCOWX CATAWBACOWX CHATHAMCOWX CHEROKEECOWX CHOWANCOWX CLAYCOWX CLEVELANDCOWX COLUMBUSCOWX CRAVENCOWX CUMBERLANDCOWX CURRITUCKCOWX DARECOWX DAVIDSONCOWX DAVIECOWX DUPLINCOWX DURHAMCOWX EDGECOMBECOWX FORSYTHCOWX FRANKLINCOWX GASTONCOWX GATESCOWX GRAHAMCOWX GRANVILLECOWX GREENECOWX GUILFORDCOWX HALIFAXCOWX HARNETTCOWX HAYWOODCOWX HENDERSONCOWX HERTFORDCOWX HOKECOWX HYDECOWX IREDELLCOWX JACKSONCOWX JOHNSTONCOWX JONESCOWX LEECOWX LENOIRCOWX LINCOLNCOWX MACONCOWX MADISONCOWX MARTINCOWX MCDOWELLCOWX MECKLENBURGCOWX MITCHELLCOWX MONTGOMERYCOWX MOORECOWX NASHCOWX NEWHANOVERCOWX NORTHAMPTONCOWX ONSLOWCOWX ORANGECOWX PAMLICOCOWX PASQUOTANKCOWX PENDERCOWX PERQUIMANSCOWX PERSONCOWX PITTCOWX POLKCOWX RANDOLPHCOWX RICHMONDCOWX ROBESONCOWX ROCKINGHAMCOWX ROWANCOWX RUTHERFORDCOWX SAMPSONCOWX SCOTLANDCOWX STANLYCOWX STOKESCOWX SURRYCOWX SWAINCOWX TRANSYLVANIACOWX TYRRELLCOWX UNIONCOWX VANCECOWX WAKECOWX WARRENCOWX WASHINGTONCOWX WATAUGACOWX WAYNECOWX WILKESCOWX WILSONCOWX YADKINCOWX YANCEYCOWX