A warm and humid airmass and an approaching disturbance will combine to produce widespread storms, and some of these storms could be severe. It is now spring and if you have lived in NC long of enough you know what that means severe weather.
WHAT: An approaching disturbance from the west will bring the chance of thunderstorms, in fact, The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of NC in a level 2/5 for severe weather. A strong surface low currently over Texas will push east into the state on Monday, out ahead of the low a warm and moist environment will allow for the development of severe weather. Based on the latest model guidance we will see mostly cloudy skies, which could help limit the severe weather threat a little.
However, one key ingredient for severe weather is CAPE (convective available potential energy) this important for the development of severe weather. Models are showing 2000-2500 which is more than enough for severe storms to fire. Another important ingredient is shear, the shear levels will marginal, thus widespread tornadoes not expected at this point but some tornadoes are certainly not out of the question.
Above is the forecasted severe weather areas, based on the SPC outlook, the greatest chance to see severe weather will be in the yellow (Slight) area from Goldsboro to Fayetteville, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greensboro. These areas have the best chance to see damaging winds, 1-2 tornadoes, and large hail. Elsewhere in the green, you have a chance to isolated damaging winds.
THREATS: Based on the current model analysis, all types of severe weather is expected. Damaging winds look to be the greatest threat, however, the threat for tornadoes also is possible. Models are showing discrete supercells out ahead of the main line over Central NC, this trend will be monitored for Tornadoes. As always with all storms, large hail is possible too. The timing of these storms will be from mid-afternoon to the overnight hours. One thing to watch closely tomorrow is how much sunshine we see, the more sunshine we see the more unstable the atmosphere is!
Here's a look at the threat-cast for areas in the yellow above on the map.
Here's a look at the threat-cast for areas in green on the map.
Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts. Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website!
SEVERE WEATHER TEXT ALERTS
I want to remind you with severe weather and hurricane seasons coming up, to sign up for our FREE text alert service! Texts reach you when you have little cell service and you don't have to download anything and take up storage. This is not automated - I am constantly monitoring warnings. That is our priority: your safety. You will only receive alerts for the counties in which you subscribe to. You are welcome to signup/subscribe to as many counties as you wish to and can unsubscribe at any time.
To sign up you will still need to make sure your text (in your cell phone text messages) the EXACT spelling of the capitalized word on the list BELOW to 84483 to sign up for that county.
I have added 100 NC counties out of 100 counties, As always all warnings and watches will be posted on FB for all 100 counties.
(this is exactly how you have to text your county in your cell phone text messages to 84483 to sign up). ALAMANCECOWX ALEXANDERCOWX ALLEGHANYCOWX ANSONCOWX ASHECOWX AVERYCOWX BEAUFORTCOWX BERTIECOWX BLADENCOWX BRUNSWICKCOWX BUNCOMBECOWX BURKECOWX CABARRUSCOWX CALDWELLCOWX CAMDENCOWX CARTERETCOWX CASWELLCOWX CATAWBACOWX CHATHAMCOWX CHEROKEECOWX CHOWANCOWX CLAYCOWX CLEVELANDCOWX COLUMBUSCOWX CRAVENCOWX CUMBERLANDCOWX CURRITUCKCOWX DARECOWX DAVIDSONCOWX DAVIECOWX DUPLINCOWX DURHAMCOWX EDGECOMBECOWX FORSYTHCOWX FRANKLINCOWX GASTONCOWX GATESCOWX GRAHAMCOWX GRANVILLECOWX GREENECOWX GUILFORDCOWX HALIFAXCOWX HARNETTCOWX HAYWOODCOWX HENDERSONCOWX HERTFORDCOWX HOKECOWX HYDECOWX IREDELLCOWX JACKSONCOWX JOHNSTONCOWX JONESCOWX LEECOWX LENOIRCOWX LINCOLNCOWX MACONCOWX MADISONCOWX MARTINCOWX MCDOWELLCOWX MECKLENBURGCOWX MITCHELLCOWX MONTGOMERYCOWX MOORECOWX NASHCOWX NEWHANOVERCOWX NORTHAMPTONCOWX ONSLOWCOWX ORANGECOWX PAMLICOCOWX PASQUOTANKCOWX PENDERCOWX PERQUIMANSCOWX PERSONCOWX PITTCOWX POLKCOWX RANDOLPHCOWX RICHMONDCOWX ROBESONCOWX ROCKINGHAMCOWX ROWANCOWX RUTHERFORDCOWX SAMPSONCOWX SCOTLANDCOWX STANLYCOWX STOKESCOWX SURRYCOWX SWAINCOWX TRANSYLVANIACOWX TYRRELLCOWX UNIONCOWX VANCECOWX WAKECOWX WARRENCOWX WASHINGTONCOWX WATAUGACOWX WAYNECOWX WILKESCOWX WILSONCOWX YADKINCOWX YANCEYCOWX