A robust spring system will bring the threat of severe storms to North Carolina Friday and Friday night. A warm and humid airmass and an approaching disturbance will combine to produce widespread storms, and some of these storms could be severe.
WHAT: A warm and humid airmass and an approaching disturbance will combine to produce widespread storms, and some of these storms could be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has defined an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) from the Triangle and points east to the coast, while the rest of state is under a "slight risk" (level 2/5). New model data shows higher instability values (CAPE) than recent runs, supporting the severe potential. The best combination of instability and shear will be over Central and Eastern North Carolina, over the "enhanced risk" by SPC. But strong to severe storms are possible statewide Friday and Friday night... storms could produce large hail, strong gusty winds, Flash Flooding, and a few tornadoes. Everyone needs to be weather aware Friday and Friday night, and have a way of receiving warnings in case they are needed. There still remains some significant uncertainty is regarding CAPE (convective available potential energy) this important for the development of severe weather. However, another important "ingredient" is shear, the shear levels are going to be approaching record levels for the Carolina's. Thus Damaging winds and tornadoes are certainly possible, however, there remains many questions regarding how much that detail will be ironed out over the next day or so.
Above is the Severe weather threat based on the Storm Prediction Center forecasting, the greatest chance will be from the Triangle and points east and south into eastern NC. The threat is lower west due to earlier arrival of storms.
THREATS: Based on the current model analysis, all types of severe weather is expected. Damaging winds look to be the greatest threat, however, the threat for tornadoes also is possible. Models are showing discrete supercells out ahead of the main line over / Central/Eastern NC, this trend will be monitored for Tornadoes. As always with all storms, large hail is possible too. The timing of these storms will be from mid- late afternoon to the overnight hours in Central and Eastern NC, and mid-morning through early afternoon in the mountains/ Triad.
Here's a look at the current threats based on the current model data, subject to change over the next day or so. (More Information below)
WHAT TO DO: Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts. Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website!
CALL TO ACTION: People must have a way of hearing warnings, and that way should never, ever be a siren. Their purpose is only to reach a limited number of people outdoors. Every North Carolina home and business must have a NOAA Weather radio, properly programmed and with a fresh battery backup. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone (check notification settings)... even with no good weather app installed you will receive a tornado warning with a loud audible alert.
If you live in a manufactured home, you have to GET OUT if a tornado warning is issued. Have a shelter identified, or other place identified that is open when you are at risk. Know how to get there quickly.
SEVERE WEATHER TEXT ALERTS
I want to remind you with severe weather and hurricane seasons coming up, to sign up for our FREE text alert service! Texts reach you when you have little cell service and you don't have to download anything and take up storage. This is not automated - I am constantly monitoring warnings. That is our priority: your safety. You will only receive alerts for the counties in which you subscribe to. You are welcome to signup/subscribe to as many counties as you wish to and can unsubscribe at any time.
To sign up you will still need to make sure your text (in your cell phone text messages) the EXACT spelling of the capitalized word on the list BELOW to 84483 to sign up for that county.
I have added 100 NC counties out of 100 counties, As always all warnings and watches will be posted on FB for all 100 counties.
(this is exactly how you have to text your county in your cell phone text messages to 84483 to sign up). ALAMANCECOWX ALEXANDERCOWX ALLEGHANYCOWX ANSONCOWX ASHECOWX AVERYCOWX BEAUFORTCOWX BERTIECOWX BLADENCOWX BRUNSWICKCOWX BUNCOMBECOWX BURKECOWX CABARRUSCOWX CALDWELLCOWX CAMDENCOWX CARTERETCOWX CASWELLCOWX CATAWBACOWX CHATHAMCOWX CHEROKEECOWX CHOWANCOWX CLAYCOWX CLEVELANDCOWX COLUMBUSCOWX CRAVENCOWX CUMBERLANDCOWX CURRITUCKCOWX DARECOWX DAVIDSONCOWX DAVIECOWX DUPLINCOWX DURHAMCOWX EDGECOMBECOWX FORSYTHCOWX FRANKLINCOWX GASTONCOWX GATESCOWX GRAHAMCOWX GRANVILLECOWX GREENECOWX GUILFORDCOWX HALIFAXCOWX HARNETTCOWX HAYWOODCOWX HENDERSONCOWX HERTFORDCOWX HOKECOWX HYDECOWX IREDELLCOWX JACKSONCOWX JOHNSTONCOWX JONESCOWX LEECOWX LENOIRCOWX LINCOLNCOWX MACONCOWX MADISONCOWX MARTINCOWX MCDOWELLCOWX MECKLENBURGCOWX MITCHELLCOWX MONTGOMERYCOWX MOORECOWX NASHCOWX NEWHANOVERCOWX NORTHAMPTONCOWX ONSLOWCOWX ORANGECOWX PAMLICOCOWX PASQUOTANKCOWX PENDERCOWX PERQUIMANSCOWX PERSONCOWX PITTCOWX POLKCOWX RANDOLPHCOWX RICHMONDCOWX ROBESONCOWX ROCKINGHAMCOWX ROWANCOWX RUTHERFORDCOWX SAMPSONCOWX SCOTLANDCOWX STANLYCOWX STOKESCOWX SURRYCOWX SWAINCOWX TRANSYLVANIACOWX TYRRELLCOWX UNIONCOWX VANCECOWX WAKECOWX WARRENCOWX WASHINGTONCOWX WATAUGACOWX WAYNECOWX WILKESCOWX WILSONCOWX YADKINCOWX YANCEYCOWX