Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening across North Carolina!

Ethan Clark

Jul 18, 2025

1 min read

⛈️ Storm Threat: We will once again face a threat of storms today for parts of the state, with coverage slightly higher compared to the last few days. A short-wave currently located over the Ohio Valley will push east this afternoon into the Mid-Atlantic, sparking showers and thunderstorms. Scatterd showers and thunderstorms are likely across the state this afternoon and evening, the best coverage will be along the mountains into Central NC and Northeastern North Carolina with only an isoalted storm chance across Southeatern North Carolina.

📌Storms will be typical summertime storms, but due to the heating of the day, they'll have a slightly higher chance of gusty to damaging winds. They will produce heavy rainfall, so some localized Flash Flooding cannot be ruled out.

⏰ Timing after lunch 2-10PM is the best case to see some scattered storms.

😎The Bottom Line: Everyone will see hot weather, some will see scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Be aware that if you hear thunder, move indoors and watch out for the potential of stronger storms in some areas. I'll pass along radar updates throughout the evening as usual; we'll be just fine!

-Ethan