Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Risk of strong to severe storms on Sunday, with gusty winds being the main threat.

Ethan Clark
Feb 15, 2025
2 min read

Severe Weather Update: I've received many questions about the potential of strong to severe storms on Sunday, we have a limited risk of an isolated strong to severe storm. A strong cold front will roll through the state on Sunday ahead of the cold front; a line of showers and thunderstorms will march through the state on Sunday morning into the afternoon. There will be a ton of wind energy across the state, with a lacking of CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm.

👀 WHAT: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 1/5 risk for Severe Weather from Charlotte and Raleigh East; yes we can see Severe Weather in February. There will be a ton of wind energy, so regardless of storms, gusty winds of 20-40MPH are expected statewide tomorrow with locally higher gusts. A line of showers and thunderstorms will also move through the state, a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out. The main threat will be damaging winds up to 60MPH, but I can't completely rule out an isolated tornado, although that threat is very low.

⏰: The primary timing of storms will be between 7AM-3PM from west to east, so the further west you are, the earlier and later as you move east. See the image below for a rough estimate of the storms.

👀: The Bottom Line: A strong cold front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms across the state on Sunday, the severe weather threat is overall low, so there is nothing to freak out about. Just stay aware of gusty winds and an isolated severe storm or two. I'll keep you updated on the threat on Sunday.