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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

šŸŒ€ Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Potential Winter Weather mischief this weekend?

Writer: Ethan Clark
Ethan Clark
Jan 19
2 min read

Winter Weather Forecasting: Hey everyone, here are some evening thoughts! We're at least 5-6 days out from any potential winter weather, and if you've been around long enough in North Carolina, you know how much can change over the next few days. I've seen some insane forecasts today. I am not saying they won't happen; over my decade of weather forecasting, I know things will change. I mean, come on, sometimes we can barely figure out 5 hours out šŸ˜‚.


With that being said, we're in the pattern recognition/trend monitoring of my winter weather forecasting. The potential has increased for an impactful Winter Storm across parts of the SE into Novo, including parts of NC/SC/VA and other points, however it is not a 100% lock, but odds are increasing that folks will be impacted one way or another sometime this weekend. The trends among models are quite impressive, something we havenā€™t seen in awhile acorss NC, but will it hold? That's a great question.


-It's Monday evening, we're talking about a system that could occur Saturday-Sunday. We know less than we think, and despite all the extreme models being shared around, and showing there is no reason to panic. I am watching the trends now, and over the next 24-72 hours, we should have even more confidence.


-Regardless, one thing is almost certain: It is gonna get even colder this weekend into early next week. All types of precipitation are possible this weekend, plain rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow seem all on the table. Including nothing a lower potential but still there. Who sees what, who knows. I plan to put out my favorite scenoiros maps over the next 24 hours if the forecast holds.


-What to do now, I think it is worth watching and preparing for potential impacts on your daily life from this. Other than that, sit back, relax, take a deep breath, and stay tuned for trustworthy information. I'll keep you posted on how this will play out.


-Ethan

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