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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE AS WINTER STORM APPROACHES

A major early season winter storm is about the bring historic snowfall to some parts of NC. All indications of a major winter storm impacting NC is still on track this evening, major accumulations of snow and sleet is expected across a wide part of central and western NC. Now is the time to prepare for power outages and expect travels problems starting early Sunday morning, hundreds of thousands could see power outages once this storm is done. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of NC west of Durham, and a Winter Storm Watch from Durham to i95.


Today and this evening the agreement among models still show a major snow-event, I have adjusted some of snow and sleet totals on our new forecast map. I think we will see more sleet and freezing rain mixing, many signs are suggesting that. This is very common for NC snow storms. There is a renewed threat of significant icing over the central part of the state see image two!

Starting West to East: 14-20" Pink Area (Ashe Watauga Wilkes Surry Avery Mitchell Upper Caldwell) 1 foot or more is expected here, a major snowfall. Great news for the Ski resorts! Major travel impacts are expected.

8-12" Purple Area- Foothills and Southern Mountains, Mostly snow will fall over these areas, major impacts due to snowfall expected prepare. There still may be some sleet or even freezing rain mix in. But due to mostly snowfall expected and given 1.5-2.0 inches of liquid at 10:1 ratio (1inch of rain/ equal 10inches of snow) would equal 15-20 inches of snow. However once compaction is factored in and non- frozen ground should help limit snowfall to around 8-12" locally higher where banding sets up!

4-8" Blue Area- Triad, North of Charlotte, North of Durham, and South and West of Asheville. Snowfall amounts will be cut even more here due to sleet and some freezing rain. Generally 4-8" with highest amounts north and west here.

2-4" Light Blue: Triangle, Charlotte red outline area. This area is where the rain/ snow line is going to set up, inside the red outline. A forecasting nightmare basically all types of winter weather is expected: Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain, and just plain rain even. Where the line sets up determines your actual amount of snowfall, models remain all over the place here. Major icing cannot be ruled out here.




Here's the current thinking where the potential for significant icing is possible. Models still very exactly where the rain/snow and freezing rain line will set up. Thus I have not released an official accumulation map that will be posted later tonight or in the morning.



Below is a good timeline of what is going to happen!


Bottom Line: A classic and potentially historic Winter Storm is now a day away from hitting NC. Now is the time to start preparing for power outages and to be stuck in your house for a few days, if you are from Durham and points west. A long duration event lasting from late Saturday through Monday afternoon very uncommon for NC more a Midwest storm!

Due to this type of situation more impacts and higher totals than usual looks likely. The potential for icing is also looking more likely as models continue to run.


Now is a great time to start preparing, for major impacts to your daily life. Stay tuned for more updates. Stay with North Carolina's Weather Authority throughout the week trust in me I got you covered, Don't hesitate to message with questions on our Facebook page.



 
 
 

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