FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
A vigorous spring-like storm system will bring significant impacts to NC Thursday, Flash Flooding and Severe Weather expected. Widespread rainfall totals of 3"+ possible for a good portion of the state with 5"+ possible in the mountains. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding for parts of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for Severe Weather.
WHAT: A potentially record-breaking springtime storm system will move through the state Wednesday night into late Thursday night, the system has the potential to produce numerous impacts to the state. The system will be moving across the Gulf states Wednesday and then move north toward the state Thursday. A warm and humid air will combine with copious amounts of moisture to produce very heavy rainfall, for the Mountains, Foothills, and parts of Central NC. The Weather Prediction Center has already issued a rare Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding from Greensboro west. The driving force behind all of this will be a potential record-breaking low level and mid-level jet. The jet will be streaming over the state in the mid-levels at 110-130 kts with 60-75 kts in the low-level jet. I know all of this probably very confusing; just means tons of energy available.
Below is a list of threats and how to prepare.
HEAVY RAINFALL: While Severe Weather is also a threat, Flash Flooding impacts a significant more of the population. Folks, this is a big deal from west of Raleigh into the mountains. Widespread Flash Flooding will be possible across areas seeing more than 4" of rain, this is Tropical Storm like rains. Training thunderstorms will bring hours and hours of rainfall, across a good portion of the state. The most torrential rain appears to be from Raleigh and points west. 3-6” possible across the Mountains and Foothills, Flash Flooding and mudslides will be possible. Along the Blue Ridge Escarpment 5-7+” of rain possible, if you live in an area that generally floods, be ready. I'm also concern about significant river flooding as well downstream. Timing the heaviest rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday night. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding (3/4) from Greensboro west. This means there is a 20-50% chance of Flash Flooding within 25 miles of a point.
Rainfall amounts as of now, this can and will change over the next day.
SEVERE WEATHER: The Storm Prediction Center has placed everyone from Greensboro and Charlotte east into a level 2/5 (Slight Risk) of Severe Weather Thursday. Thursday is the day to watch, The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a level 2/5 risk for Severe Weather. A vigorous storm system will impact the state Thursday, a key storm ingredient will be present shear, Storm Shear will be near record levels for February 70-80 MPH just above the surface. As temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s and moisture increases, we will start to see the development of convection. We are missing another critical "ingredient" for storm development CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy); thus, a majority of the storms will come from a quasi-linear convective system. If the CAPE happens to increase especially Raleigh and points east over the next few model runs that would be concerning.
STORM THREATS: A QLCS, which is a fancy name for a squiggly line of storms, will have the greatest threat for some damaging winds gusts and isolated embedded Tornado (though that threat is pretty low, but not zero). Due to a more line of storms and not individual storms, the threat for damaging winds is greater and with all the storm energy. The greatest threat for Severe Storms will be from Greensboro and Charlotte east to the coast, I still don't see a Severe Weather outbreak but we need to watch this closely as we get closer. We have all the ingredients they just need to come together just right for Severe Weather.
TIMING: Wednesday, rain will be possible mainly from Raleigh west into the mountains. Thursday is the day, in the morning periods of rain will start to develop by morning and continue throughout the day from Greensboro and Charlotte west.
East a few showers possible Thursday morning otherwise claim, the real deal will move through Thursday afternoon and evening. Right now the timing is from 3 PM-2AM Friday.
WHAT TO DO: Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts. Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website!
CALL TO ACTION: People must have a way of hearing warnings, and that way should never, ever be a siren. Their purpose is only to reach a limited number of people outdoors. Every North Carolina home and business must have a NOAA Weather radio, properly programmed and with a fresh battery backup. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone (check notification settings)... even with no good weather app installed you will receive a tornado warning with a loud audible alert.
If you live in a manufactured home, you have to GET OUT if a tornado warning is issued. Have a shelter identified, or other place identified that is open when you are at risk. Know how to get there quickly.