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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED AS NC BRACES FOR YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM

Yet another major storm system will bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and river flooding to the state Friday into Saturday. Today will be a fair weather day then conditions will change Thursday night. Moisture will begin to stream in from the south on Friday morning, one plus to this system is temps will be in the 50s and 60s.


Flash Flood Watch now issued from Raleigh and points south and east, including Wilmington, Morehead City, Fayetteville, New Bern, Lumberton, Rocky Mount, OBX, and Jacksonville. Flooding in poor drainage areas near creeks, streams, and ditches will be possible. Rivers will also likely quickly respond to the heavy rainfall given the saturated soils. Interests along area rivers should closely monitor this weekends storm. The watch might also have to be expanded northeast. 2-4” of rain expected Raleigh south and east. 1-2” west of Raleigh.


Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" will be possible, with 2-3' and some areas seeing 4+ along the coast. Due to the heavy snow pack in the Triad and western NC, and the heavy rainfall that fell in eastern NC over the weekend. Localized flash flooding and river flooding will be a concern Friday into Saturday.


Flash Flood Watch areas in (Green) will likely be expanded west.

In areas affected by recent snowfall and heavy rain, expect flash flooding concerns as nothing melts snow faster than rain. Additionally, on the back of the departing system Sunday, wind gusts will be problematic as soils are saturated and trees weakened by heavy ice and snow may cause sporadic power outages throughout the state. Mudslides are possible in the mountains due to heavy rainfall and rapid melting of snow.



RIVER FLOODING: River flooding may result on the Yadkin, Rocky, Haw, Cape Fear, Lumber, French Broad River and Neuse Rivers late Friday into the weekend.

Below is good prediction regarding rainfall, will change a little between now and Friday.




Stay with North Carolina's Weather Authority for more information regarding flash flooding and river flooding, we got you covered as yet another storm system affects NC.

 
 
 

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