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Mountains

SUNDAY: Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening

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CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON


Here's my midday update on the storm risk, including the potential for a few strong-to-severe storms this afternoon and evening. It'll be hot and humid today before any storms start to develop, so take it easy. We will have a front moving through the state tonight, which will, dare I say, usher in some slightly cooler air for the beginning of the week.


Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be have the potential to develop across the state, mainly in clusters/hit or a hit-or-miss setup. They'll be scattered, so not everyone will see them by any means, but there will be some storms around. However, thanks to the combination of heat and humidity (HIGH CAPE VALUES) and some Wind Shear, a couple of strong to severe storms are possible today; the main threat is going to be damaging winds from downbursts. Downbursts (a powerful, localized column of sinking air (a downdraft) within a thunderstorm that plummets to the ground and spreads out in all directions. It can create destructive, straight-line winds)


Severe weather does not impact everyone, and storm coverage today will be very hit-or-miss, but we should keep an eye on it, especially if you have outdoor late-afternoon/evening plans. Severe weather can vary significantly over short distances. To stay safe, ensure you have multiple methods for receiving emergency alerts and a pre-planned, secure location where you can take cover when conditions deteriorate.


I posted some future radar images, but made them small because the future radar models don't do great on days like this, which gives you an idea of the scattered nature. I'll keep you updated!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

DRY WEEK AHEAD, COASTAL LOW SATURDAY?

A wonderful weekend weather wise is now coming to a close. Thanksgiving week will be very quite weather wise, some showers are possible Monday otherwise the rest of the week will be dry. If you have Holiday travel around NC it will be smooth sailing Wednesday and Friday, temperatures will start in the 60s Monday and Tuesday and cool into the 50s for the weekend of the week and Thanksgiving!


Monday: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny and fairly mild to start the week. Highs in the low to mid 60s. A few sprinkles or scattered light showers can't be ruled out through the morning, mainly for areas south and east of the Triangle along the Coast and eastern NC






Tuesday night a cold front will pass through the state. Cold air in the wake of the front will be slow to filter into North Carolina, but on Wednesday, temperatures will struggle to climb above the lower 50s. Plenty of sunshine and dry conditions will allow for good travel conditions across the region the day before Thanksgiving


Chilly temperatures will continue into Thanksgiving day with dry conditions and plenty of sunshine with high pressure over the state.


Costal Low Saturday? A wedge looks to be developing on Fri as cool and dry high pressure extends down from the north as coastal trough/ warm front begins to develop. This should help to increase clouds through Fri along the coast and possibly some warmer temps along the coast in a more on shore flow. By Fri night, a storm system moving across NC will deepen with mid to upper trough pushing a cold front east. This will help to kick warm front inland and north through Fri night into Sat along the coast, with plenty of clouds and showers spreading over NC for Saturday. Low pressure may develop on the tail end of this front as it runs up through the Southeast which may help to enhance showers and heavy rain on Saturday across the state.

Below is two model solutions for Saturday, GFS and CMC. I'll have more updates later this week!




 
 
 

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