Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

A Special Message from Ethan: 10 Year Anniversary

Caden Nelson

Apr 1

2 min read

Special Message: Today marks a decade of North Carolina's Weather Authority, celebrated on April Fools' Day lol. Ten years ago, at the age of 13 and in the 7th grade at Oberlin Road Middle School in Raleigh, I decided to create a weather page for my friends and family. Little did I know that this simple endeavor would lead to such remarkable growth and success!

Over the past decade, my work has gained significant recognition. I've assumed a staggering number of followers on Facebook and Instagram, with over a million combined across all 100 counties of North Carolina. My weather forecasts have been featured on nearly every major media platform in the country, including NBC, CBS, FOX, The New York Times, CNN, People Magazine, Our State, BBC, Yahoo, Southern Living, and many more.

Throughout this journey, I've received awards for my work from both current and former governors of the state. Despite the accolades and recognition, my unwavering mission remains the same: to provide accurate and down-to-earth weather forecasts, assist the people of North Carolina, and be there for them no matter what, without causing unnecessary hype or alarm.

My life has undergone significant changes over the past decade, including graduating high school, attending college, and embarking on my career. However, my passion and love for weather and this state have remained steadfast.

Thank you to the incredible people who have followed North Carolina's Weather Authority for the past decade and the new ones who have discovered me over the years. I truly appreciate your trust in me to provide you with accurate weather forecasts and support your family.

We have faced numerous once-in-a-lifetime hurricanes, historic winter storms, countless severe weather events, record heat, record cold, and rolling blackouts.

This isn't a goodbye; I'm recharging my batteries and ready to take North Carolina's Weather Authority into the next decade. I'm actively working on ways to make this my career. Thank you for the support, and to 13-year-old Ethan, I'm glad I pursued my dream of becoming a weatherman. I'll never regret the things I missed over the years because of the time I spent devoting my work on this! Thank you so much!