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Strong to severe storm chance mainly across Eastern NC on Tuesday.

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CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, but this time the threat shifts east and northeast into Eastern sections of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk, placing most areas east and northeast of Raleigh under a level 2/5 risk and a level 1/5 risk for the rest of Central NC to about Greensboro. Why? Well, an approaching cold front moving into the mountains will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


Temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s, should support CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and evening across parts of Central and Eastern NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as early as lunchtime and be around through the evening from west to east, but not everyone will see rain or storms.


A couple of storms could turn strong to severe, mainly from 12-8PM across parts of Eastern and esp NE NC. The main threat is gusty to damaging straight-line winds and some small hail, but I can't with 100% confience rule out a brief tornado mainly across Eastern/NE NC in the level 2/5, but better (low chance further north and east in the level 2 and lower south in the level 2/5) because of a lower risk of storms.




The Bottom Line: A cold front is moving through the mountains, bringing a few showers as the atmosphere warms up, and showers and thunderstorms are expected east, and a few could be strong to severe. So no reason to panic, but just like Western areas saw yesterday, we should stay aware east. I'll be watching the radar and trends all day like normal. Stay tuned! We turn drier and cooler for Wednesday before our heat wave starts late week into next week.


-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

A rare High Risk for severe weather has been issued for portions of Kansas and Oklahoma

Updated: May 7, 2024


ORIGINAL POST (MAY 6, 2024):

In North Carolina, the majority of severe weather forecasts typically entail Marginal and Slight Risks, with occasional Enhanced Risks during the summer months. While Moderate Risks are rare in the region, High Risks are exceptionally scarce, not only within the state but across the nation. Notably, the most recent High Risk designation was issued on March 31, 2023. Prior to this, the last High Risk was issued on March 25, 2021. It's worth noting that there were no High Risk days documented in 2020 or 2022, underscoring the extraordinary scarcity of such events.


Today, May 6, 2024, a High Risk has been posted for much of central Oklahoma and far south-central Kansas. There's a powerful storm system moving from the Rocky Mountains towards the central United States, which will impact areas from Nebraska down towards northern Texas. The clashing of moist air from the south and dry air from the west will set the stage for a dangerous severe weather day. Below is the severe weather outlook for today, posted by the Storm Prediction Center.

The severe weather outlook for Monday, May 6th, 2024, issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

The latest update, posted at 11:00 AM CT noted that clouds are thickening over Texas and the central plains, while air is becoming more humid in Oklahoma. The humidity in Oklahoma is creating conditions favorable for thunderstorm development.


Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center anticipate that thunderstorms will form, in western Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota in particular. Some of these storms may evolve into supercells, which are rotating thunderstorms known for their potential to produce severe weather. Supercells are most likely in central Kansas and Oklahoma, where the atmospheric conditions are favorable for the formation of supercell thunderstorms. In this area, there is the potential for very large hail and the development of intense tornadoes.


The National Weather Service office in Norman, OK are urging the public to stay weather aware.




If you know anyone in this area, please make sure they are aware of this very dangerous situation.

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