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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

A rare High Risk for severe weather has been issued for portions of Kansas and Oklahoma

Updated: May 7, 2024


ORIGINAL POST (MAY 6, 2024):

In North Carolina, the majority of severe weather forecasts typically entail Marginal and Slight Risks, with occasional Enhanced Risks during the summer months. While Moderate Risks are rare in the region, High Risks are exceptionally scarce, not only within the state but across the nation. Notably, the most recent High Risk designation was issued on March 31, 2023. Prior to this, the last High Risk was issued on March 25, 2021. It's worth noting that there were no High Risk days documented in 2020 or 2022, underscoring the extraordinary scarcity of such events.


Today, May 6, 2024, a High Risk has been posted for much of central Oklahoma and far south-central Kansas. There's a powerful storm system moving from the Rocky Mountains towards the central United States, which will impact areas from Nebraska down towards northern Texas. The clashing of moist air from the south and dry air from the west will set the stage for a dangerous severe weather day. Below is the severe weather outlook for today, posted by the Storm Prediction Center.

The severe weather outlook for Monday, May 6th, 2024, issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

The latest update, posted at 11:00 AM CT noted that clouds are thickening over Texas and the central plains, while air is becoming more humid in Oklahoma. The humidity in Oklahoma is creating conditions favorable for thunderstorm development.


Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center anticipate that thunderstorms will form, in western Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota in particular. Some of these storms may evolve into supercells, which are rotating thunderstorms known for their potential to produce severe weather. Supercells are most likely in central Kansas and Oklahoma, where the atmospheric conditions are favorable for the formation of supercell thunderstorms. In this area, there is the potential for very large hail and the development of intense tornadoes.


The National Weather Service office in Norman, OK are urging the public to stay weather aware.




If you know anyone in this area, please make sure they are aware of this very dangerous situation.

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