The threat of Severe Weather is increasing for Overnight Sunday into Monday morning. The timing of the severe weather particularly concerns me due to it being overnight and early morning. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for Severe weather for the entire state, I expect that could be upgraded as early as today. No, the world is not going to end not everyone sees Severe Weather like snow or Hurricanes, but it is the time to stay aware and have many ways for alerts. This could be a Potentially dangerous situation for folks that don't have ways to receive warnings.
WHAT: A robust springtime storm system will likely produce Severe Weather across the southeast Sunday into Monday, this threat will be with us here in NC Sunday during the overnight hours into Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a level 4/5 risk for severe weather for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The threat expands north and east across Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Risk upon us will be way different then what we have seen the past few days. One key ingredient for severe weather is CAPE (convective available potential energy) this critical for the development of severe weather. Models are showing 1000-1500, which is enough for severe storms to fire the more sun we see, the more energy, no matter if we see the sun or not severe weather is still a concern, just sun exasperates the situation. The question for this is do we see the event during the predawn hours or does the sun come up for some. However, another important "ingredient" is shear; the shear levels are going to be rather high for the Carolina's. Thus Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are certainly likely on the map below. A QLCS, which is a fancy name for a squiggly line of storms, will have the greatest threat for damaging winds and embedded Tornadoes. The QLCS will then pose a risk of widespread 40-55 mph winds, locally up to 65-75 mph, and a few mesovortices/tornadoes (embedded tornadoes). There still remains some significant uncertainty is regarding CAPE (convective available potential energy) this important for the development of severe weather. However, another important "ingredient" is shear, the shear levels are going to be approaching extremely high levels for the Carolina's. Thus Damaging winds and tornadoes are certainly possible, however, there remains many questions regarding how much that detail will be ironed out over the next day or so.
THREATS: Based on the current model analysis, all types of severe weather is expected. Damaging winds look to be the greatest threat, however, the threat for tornadoes also is possible. As always with all storms, large hail is possible too. The timing of these storms will be from early morning hours predawn to dawn hours afternoon Central and Eastern NC, and after midnight to dawn areas to the west. Timing will still be worked out. The upper level winds are impressive, Damaging winds could be the main threat.
SEVERE WEATHER: We are watching the potential to see severe weather across NC Sunday during the overnight hours into Monday. The models continue to show an impressive springtime storm system pushing across the deep south during the day on Sunday and moving into the state overnight Sunday into Monday. The wind fields with this system will be extremely strong; thus I think we could see a widespread damaging winds threat. I do think at least a few tornadoes will be possible, especially Monday morning east of I-77. There remains a few questions on instability (CAPE) and the timing. Another thing we want to know, will it come through more as a line of storms or a broken line? This is critical to forecast the tornado threat, we will have a much better ideal on this tonight.
WILL THIS BE LIKE THIS EVENT? No, all events are different and have different characteristics.
WHAT CAN WE DO NOW? Right now, you can make sure you have a way to receive warnings that will wake you up. Please make sure you know how to find your county on a map; I'll post the NC county map below.
CALL TO ACTION: People must have a way of hearing warnings, and that way should never, ever be a siren. Their purpose is only to reach a limited number of people outdoors. Every North Carolina home and business must have an NOAA Weather Radio, adequately programmed, and with a fresh battery backup. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone (check notification settings)... even with no good weather app installed you will receive a tornado warning with a loud audible alert. If you live in a manufactured home, you have to GET OUT if a tornado warning is issued. Have a shelter identified, or other place identified that is open when you are at risk. Know how to get there quickly.
Another full update this evening, Stay tuned for a time regarding a Facebook Live; sometime this evening. Today will be a great day, mostly sunny and cool highs in the 60s.