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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Thursday, December 31st, 2020 Forecast

Ugly weather end to 2020, but isn't that just fitting? Happy Thursday and the last day of 2020, North Carolina! The weather will defiantly not be very nice today for any outdoor plans, unfortunately. This morning we will have areas of fog followed by scattered showers likely this morning and through the afternoon. At some point this afternoon, the state should see a nice break of the rain, followed by more rain through the evening. The coverage will be about 50% of the state through the day; I think there will be many areas that stay pretty dry while others see more rain; it is that hit or miss type of rain.


Temperatures are another challenging thing; we're still in the Cold Air Damming/Wedge; it appears temperatures should warm into the 60s across parts of Eastern and Coastal NC. However, to the west, I've opted to go lower than most model guidance due to the fact that wedges are notorious for slowing warming, and models are a warm bais on this type of setup. So I've taken about 3-4° off for most locations highs should range in the upper 40s to low and mid-50s across most of the state with 60s to the east. I can't rule out some temperatures being slightly higher or lower, forecasting is a science, and I am going with experience rather than modeling for temperatures today.


If you have anything outside this evening, I would have a plan B in place due to rain.


Happy New Year; I know this year has been rough for many, but thank you for continuing to follow and support the page. I hope we can all look forward to a brighter year ahead weather-wise and everything.




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