SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON EXPECTED
The 2018 Hurricane season was one of the most destructive seasons for NC in recent memory. In 2018 Hurricane Florence caused $20 Billion worth of damage to the state this still leaves many North Carolina residents on edge. That’s why Today, I am releasing North Carolina’s Weather Authority 2019 Hurricane Forecast. Forecasting hurricanes are challenging let along forecasting an entire season, that’s why many weeks of research has gone into this forecast. 2019 Hurricane Season is expected to be just slightly above average, but a little less active than last year. This doesn’t necessarily mean it will be less dangerous than last year. My outlook calls for 13-17 named storms (39 MPH or greater) of those 6-8 will become Hurricanes (74 MPH or greater) and 2-4 of those will become Major Hurricanes (111 MPH or greater)
NCWA outlook is based on a number of factors, including sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño and other teleconnections, statistical computer forecast model guidance and past hurricane seasons exhibiting similar atmospheric conditions.
This outlook reflects competing climate factors. New model data suggest that El Nino is expected to remain a very weak or even go to a neutral state during the Hurricane Season. Countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity. I am predicting that these factors will offset El Nino producing slightly above average activity.
Our forecast matches pretty close with nearly every other forecast
There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and United States landfalls in any given season. One or more of the 17 named storms predicted to develop this season could hit the U.S., or none could at all. That’s why preparedness is key to Hurricane Season, every North Carolina resident should have a hurricane kit ready no matter where you are located. If you are located along the coast you should have a plan in place should you need to evacuate this season.
WHAT’S BEHIND THE FORECAST?
One main leading factor in Hurricane forecasting is El Nino. El Nino tends to produce cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic and higher than average wind shear which kills hurricanes. El Nino at this point is expected to continue to weaken to a very weak El Nino or a neutral El Nino.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic are currently very similar to those observed during the last three years, which were all active hurricane seasons. However, the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies in May matched Mays from previous years that went on to have inactive hurricane seasons.
Above based on the steering patterns so far is where the best areas are to see a Hurricane or Tropical Storm.
There are many factors that go into a Hurricane Season, the one thing you can do right now is BE PREPARED being prepared will go a long way during and leading up to a Hurricane. As always you can count on North Carolina Weather Authority to get you through the season, this year I will be using state of the art forecasting graphics to help you be better prepared. Make sure you check out the new Hurricane section on the website over the coming weeks for more information!