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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Severe Weather Update for Friday, March 3rd, 2023

Writer: Ethan Clark
Ethan Clark
Mar 2, 2023
2 min read

Severe Weather Update: There is a limited risk of Severe Weather Friday across the state, with the highest chance (still rather low) across Western NC. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather for areas west of Greensboro; all other areas across the state are under a level 1/5 risk. This will not be a severe weather outbreak that other areas of the country are seeing; in fact, the threat overall at this point looks rather low.



Here's a breakdown of the threat:


WHAT: A cold front will approach the state Friday; ahead of the front scattered showers are likely Friday morning across the state before some storms could develop. Ingredients for storm development look pretty marginal; however, any storm that can develop could turn strong to severe. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm.) will be very limited; thus, I believe storms are going to struggle to develop.


⚠️: Threats if a few storms do develop, they could turn strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main threat, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out, mainly in the level 2/5 risk in yellow on the map below. Across the level 1/5 risk, an isolated storm could turn severe, but ingredients look even marginal.


⏰: The timing for any storms will be 3-9PM from west to east.


The Bottom Line: I wanted to provide an update, but overall, the threat appears rather low at this time; there remains considerable uncertainty, and this is subject to change. I'll continue to provide updates as needed. Just make sure you have ways to get warnings Friday afternoon in case you need it, but this appears it'll be an isolated threat at best. No reason to panic; we're entering severe weather season, so this could happen more as we go into March and April.

 
 
 

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