Severe Weather Update: There is a limited risk of Severe Weather Friday across the state, with the highest chance (still rather low) across Western NC. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather for areas west of Greensboro; all other areas across the state are under a level 1/5 risk. This will not be a severe weather outbreak that other areas of the country are seeing; in fact, the threat overall at this point looks rather low.
Here's a breakdown of the threat:
WHAT: A cold front will approach the state Friday; ahead of the front scattered showers are likely Friday morning across the state before some storms could develop. Ingredients for storm development look pretty marginal; however, any storm that can develop could turn strong to severe. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm.) will be very limited; thus, I believe storms are going to struggle to develop.
⚠️: Threats if a few storms do develop, they could turn strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main threat, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out, mainly in the level 2/5 risk in yellow on the map below. Across the level 1/5 risk, an isolated storm could turn severe, but ingredients look even marginal.
⏰: The timing for any storms will be 3-9PM from west to east.
The Bottom Line: I wanted to provide an update, but overall, the threat appears rather low at this time; there remains considerable uncertainty, and this is subject to change. I'll continue to provide updates as needed. Just make sure you have ways to get warnings Friday afternoon in case you need it, but this appears it'll be an isolated threat at best. No reason to panic; we're entering severe weather season, so this could happen more as we go into March and April.