6 Tropical Systems
Official Forecast Track
Tropical Update: On Friday morning, the Tropics are very active throughout the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. The good news is, despite all the activity, there is no immediate threat to NC from any of these systems. However, we should remain alert and tuned as this could change quickly, as we all know. I’ll give a break down of each system, and what to expect below; I hope you read it.
#1: This is a newly emerged wave off of Africa that has that look; it is already very well organized and developing areas of thunderstorms throughout the system. At this time, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days. It will likely be a Tropical Depression soon; over the next 5-6 days, it will continue a track west toward the Caribbean islands. Beyond that, what shape or form the system is will decide the future track; it is way too soon to know what will happen with it. No, there is no reason to panic; we have no clue where it will go or what it will do. It takes 8-12 days to get to the United States from this location, so a lot will happen, and it may never even come.
#2 This system is just now coming off Africa and also has a chance of developing the National Hurricane Center gives it a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days. Right now, early indications take it into the open Atlantic, but we will continue to watch no matter what.
#3 This is Tropical Storm Rene; we will not talk much about this as it is a Fish Storm no impacts to landmasses
#4 Tropical Storm Paulette, the system is becoming better organized and on a track towards the tiny island of Bermuda. The forecast track brings it as a strong Cat 2 Hurricane toward Bermuda in a few days. Right now, residents should begin watching and possibly preparing soon. The system will then get picked up by a trough and head out to sea; the only impact on the US East Coast is increased Surf and Rip Currents. I will continue to provide updates in case you have any interests in Bermuda.
#5 This is over new-formed system located over the Bahamas; it is kinda a sneaky system that came up; the system will pass over southern Florida over the next day or so and then will be in the Gulf of Mexico. After that point, gradual development is possible, and the Hurricane Center gives it a 60% of becoming a Tropical Storm or Depression. Conditions do appear to be favorable based on the data from models. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor this system; I’ll keep you posted as well no threat to NC as of right now!
#6 this is a weaker system in the Gulf of Mexico; I’ll pull the data directly from the Hurricane Center as this does not appear to be a threat to the US: From The National Hurricane Center
“.Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.”
The Bottom Line is it is the most active time of the season, so we should watch everything closely, but none pose a direct threat to NC as of this time. That could change over the coming days and weeks, but only time will tell. We must closely watch the tropics through the end of October. Remember, find only trusted sites, not sites that cause and post misleading information to force you to click on it. I’ll keep you posted on all systems, no matter if they are a threat to NC. Have a great day, more to come on the weekend forecast this afternoon.
Official Forecast Track